WN MONDAY MAILBAG: WHERE ARE ALL THE TRADES?

Good morning and happy trade deadline day! At the time of this writing, 8:20 A.M. eastern standard time, the Red Wings have engaged in no trades since the Petr Mrazek deal last Monday, despite a plethora of rumors surrounding some of their key players. Since Ken Holland announced his intention to sell at this year’s deadline, we’ve all been eagerly awaiting news of, at the very least, Mike Green’s departure. So far, all has been quiet from the Red Wings front office and fans have lots of questions.

I had to include that last one because how often do I get to put a Dave Chappelle GIF on this site!? Anyways, the reason there have been no trades for the Wings so far is because other teams started selling first. Toronto landed Tomas Plekanec, which took away their need for Luke Glendening. The Rick Nash trade set the value for top-6 wingers, so that should open the floodgates for guys like Tomas Tatar or Gustav Nyquist. But don’t expect them to be dealt. There are a plethora of other options out there for rental, such as Evander Kane, and Tatar/Nyquist come with term. Finally, there’s the Mike Green dilemma. Ottawa and New York have really put a damper on the Wings trade deadline. With Erik Karlsson and Ryan McDonagh on the block, Mike Green has become a B or even a C option.

We need some of these other dominoes to fall before teams start calling Holland. Speaking of Holland, the other reason there have been no trades is because he’s so firm on his asking price. Remember that the Leafs offered him a 5th for Glendening and he turned it down. He was not willing to budge on his asking price and because of that Glendening is still a Red Wing. We’ll see how he does on his negotiations today, but Craig Custance mentioned that most Red Wings trades will likely happen between noon and 3 P.M. today.

I think that having term left on their contracts hurts getting a deal done by 3 P.M. today, but I don’t think it hurts at the draft. At this point of the season, teams have a very short-term outlook. They are looking for a solution to a problem that they foresee coming up in a playoff scenario, sometimes against a specific team. For example, how do the Washington Capitals defend against Pittsburgh’s offensive depth in a seven game series? They don’t have a lot of time to think about the roster management or cap implications of bringing a player on for the next three years.

At the draft, without the looming playoffs, teams are in planning mode and have a good idea of what they want their future to look like. They can go out and make moves for players with term as they have the resources to build around it. Look at the Weber/Subban trade. Lots of time for both teams to chew on that one and how it affects both of their rosters.

So yes, I believe the term hurts their getting dealt at the deadline. Not saying it’s impossible, just that teams aren’t in long-term planning mode and are just trying to survive the next three months. One of them will be gone by the draft, though.

Wrap yourself tightly in a blanket. Deep breaths. Drink lots of water. Watch that 2002 Stanley Cup DVD on repeat, but fast forward anytime Holland is on screen. That should at least get you through to the draft lottery. After that, you’re on your own!

Hronek’s been hot lately so we’re all eager to see what he can do at the NHL level, but knowing the Red Wings organization and talent development, they probably like the idea of keeping him in Grand Rapids for the season and letting him play in a playoff run.

Even if the best case scenario happens at the trade deadline (Green & Ouellet both traded), I could see the Wings calling up one of the veteran defenseman, either Russo, Renouf, or Lashoff, which would give Hronek a bigger role in Grand Rapids, both on the ice and off of it. I could even see Joe Hicketts called up for a stint before him.

Don’t get me wrong, I think the team is very high on him, but they do see some benefit in letting him finish the season in Grand Rapids, on a winning team, in the playoffs. He can take the next big step next season, when there is a fresh outlook in the NHL locker room.

Personally, I would love to see Hronek get one or two games in, but what’s the point in doing it now? The Wings aren’t going anywhere.

I highly doubt any of these players make it into the Red Wings lineup this season, with the exception of Hicketts and maybe Turgeon. I spoke about Hronek above. Machovsky will stay in Grand Rapids because Detroit isn’t doing anymore tinkering with their goalies. Svechnikov isn’t having a good enough season to warrant a call-up and, barring a future injury, there’s no room for him. If Green and Ouellet are traded, then maybe Hicketts gets a call-up to build on what he started earlier this year, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see the call-up going to one of the vets. If there’s another injury to a bottom-6 player, then Turgeon will get the call-up to fill that spot. Nothing long-term and nothing permanent.

Well, he’s still on contract.

In all seriousness, though, Holland’s been general manager since 1998 and brought the Wings a lot of glory in his tenure. Because of recency bias, we tend to forget that. The Illitch’s are a deeply loyal family and still remember what Holland has done for this team over the last twenty years. They probably feel that they owe it to him to try and fix this team.

He’ll definitely ride out the rest of the season, but with his contract up this year, I really don’t know if they’ll bring him back. They may, that wouldn’t surprise me. But they may not and that wouldn’t surprise me either. It all depends on what kind of owner Chris Illitch wants to be. Holland has been connected to Seattle in the past, but they are still a few years out. Maybe they sign a bridge deal in which he takes a lesser role and trains the next GM (either Kris Draper or Ryan Martin) and then he goes off to Seattle? There’s still a lot that can happen.

I do think that we as a fan base are incredibly hard on a GM who brought us eighteen years of winning and doesn’t want to throw that out the window by intentionally losing games to have a 20% shot at the first overall pick.

This right here is the big elephant in the room. What if Green doesn’t get traded? With Karlsson and McDonagh still on the block and Green’s recent injury status, his value, which was once a first round pick, is losing value faster than my beer league team loses steam. At this point, would you be surprised if trading Green brought in a third round pick? Would you be happy with it?

The absolute worst case scenario is that Green doesn’t go anywhere. The Wings will still miss out on the playoffs, albeit more narrowly, and therefore will have much less of a chance of landing the first overall pick. And then, at the end of it all, Green will walk for nothing. They can’t lose this asset for nothing. Trade him for something, anything so that you don’t lose him for nothing.

In my opinion, this is what Holland’s deadline hinges on. Do. Not. Lose. Mike. Green. For. Nothing.