Wings Nation 2016-17 Player Review: Frans Nielsen
By Nick Seguin
6 years agoAt last year’s NHL draft, Ken Holland worked some magic to rid himself of the final year of Pavel Datsyuk’s contract. Already a cap team, the Red Wings needed a replacement for Pav at centre and freeing up that $7.5 million in cap space meant they could make a splash in free agency with one of the biggest fish in the sea. Of course, we all know that Steven Stamkos didn’t even grant Holland a discussion, so Holland was forced to look at the next tier of free agent centres.
He finally ended up with Frans Nielsen, signing the 33-year-old to a six year, $35.5 million contract. It’s a sketchy deal, considering the term, but Nielsen is one of the best two-way centres in the game and would serve as a good mentor to Dylan Larkin who the team expects to shift into a similar role. Of course, Nielsen is no replacement for Pavel Datsyuk, but let’s see how he did in his first season as a Red Wing.
Hero Chart:
As a New York Islander, Nielsen spent most of his time playing in the middle-6 behind John Tavares and Brock Nelson. This season in Detroit, he spent more time in the top-6, as the second line centre behind Henrik Zetterberg. While he may produce points more at the rate of a 3rd/4th liner, Nielsen’s shooting metrics are more in line with where he actually plays in the lineup. He generates shots and concedes shots at the rate of a 1st/2nd liner and, for the most part, is shooting from a high danger area.
The shot concession is huge for the Wings as they need all the help they can get defensively. Nielsen was crucial to the penalty kill and kept his linemates playing at a fun pace.
Crunching Numbers:
Boxcars:
For the sixth time in his career, Nielsen hit the 40 point marker. I have no doubt that with better quality teammates, he could produce at an even higher rate. But he was brought in for his 2-way game and on a team that’s weak on defense, that’s where he had to focus. Nieslen is a special teams monster, as he led the Wings in both powerplay points and shorthanded points. It’s impressive that, on a team with a struggling powerplay, Nieslen still managed to net himself 15 powerplay points.
His shot rate was a little lower this year due to his defensive duties and he clearly has been working on his faceoffs as the 53.79% FO% is far and away the best of his career. The Wings really relied on him for important, especially defensive, faceoff wins.
Corsi:
Nielsen’s 5v5 on-ice CF% was sixth on the team amongst players who played more than twenty games. His iCF60 was second, behind only Anthony Mantha. Despite Nielsen being complimented for his two-way game, his deployment was oddly tilted to the offensive side of the ice with 37.84% of his zone starts in the O-Zone. This is because he played over 200 minutes with Thomas Vanek this year who, despite being a team leader in scoring, had an even worse on-ice CF% than Nielsen.
Goal Based:
As for goals, Nielsen was never brought in to lead the scoring race in Detroit, but it would have been nice if he was able to pot a few more. His GF% was among the lower third of the team despite his individual shooting metrics being at par with the rest of his career. His on-ice save percentage is so low due to the spotty goaltending and even spottier defense. The team around him did nothing to help Nielsen’s individual stats.
One thing Nielsen was expected to do this season was help out in the shootout. He had exceptional stats coming into this season, but was underwhelming as a Red Wing. He was 25% all season, good for fourth on the team.
2017-18 Prediction:
I expect more of the same from Nielsen next season. If anything, some of his ice time will transfer to the younger players as they shoulder more responsibility. He’ll be a good mentor to Dylan Larkin, who is slowly making the transfer from the wing to centre. Assuming the Wings can get the powerplay going, Nielsen should be good for 20 goals and 45 points. I expect him to find his shootout magic again, too.
Overall, I expect the Red Wings to be better as a collective next season and Nielsen will benefit from that.
Conclusion
In conclusion, much is expected of Frans Nielsen. He was handed a big contract to come in and support at centre in the absence of Pavel Datsyuk. Nobody expects him to replace Pav, but he was far from the player they needed him to be this year.
That being said, his individual stats were not far off from his career average. Nielsen is a support player, so we shouldn’t expect him to play like a star. He played like he has in the past and was rewarded accordingly. Unfortunately for Detroit, they need him to be something more.
That’s okay – he’s got five more years to figure it out.
Grade: B
Recent articles from Nick Seguin
