What the Brendan Smith Trade Means For The Red Wings

This came after Holland reportedly failed to sign Smith to a three year, $10.5 million contract extension ($3.5M AAV). While this deal for a defenseman like Smith is actually pretty reasonable, it’s not exactly what Detroit needs right now. Instead, a rebuilding team like Detroit should be in the business of creating cap space by shedding salaries.

The more exciting acquisition of this deal is the 2nd round pick in 2018. Nobody knows where the Rangers will land in the standings next year, but a 2nd rounder guarantees the Red Wings an extra pick in the top 62 overall. There have been some notable players who have fallen to the 2nd round such as P.K. Subban (43rd overall in 2007), Patrice Bergeron (45th overall in 2003), and Duncan Keith (54th overall in 2002). After the 2nd round, there is a big drop off in talent and, with the 2017 draft pool looking to be pretty weak, the Wings should hopefully be able to pick up a good asset with this pick.

One of the biggest benefits of this return is that it doesn’t clutter the Red Wings salary cap with more contracts. Shedding Smith’s $2.75 million salary starts to loosen the strain they felt from being right up against the cap ceiling. The fact that Smith turned down the contract extension is a blessing in disguise for Wings management. It would have just been another $3.5 million of space they have on a cap that is seriously weighed down with anchor contracts for a long time. It may be a short-term benefit, but it’s a step in the right direction.

The downside to losing Brendan Smith’s salary is that they also lose Brendan Smith, one of the team’s best defensemen. With only two goals and five points in 33 games, he may not have been a point producing monster, but he had the second best 5v5 RelCF% among team defensemen. It’s also important to consider that his 49.11 5v5 on-ice CF% is the lowest of his career so far. In fact, aggregating data from 2013-14 to now, Smith has the best on-ice CF% among Red Wings defensemen with 54.52. He is a great skater and puck handler who is capable of setting up a play and getting the puck to a forward.

That being said, Detroit’s young defensemen have been really impressive this season. Xavier Ouellet and Ryan Sproul were both waiver exempt at the start of the season and Nick Jensen passed the ten game threshold in January. All three were considered good enough to be kept on the roster. The only problem is that one or two of them ended up sitting every night in favour of the veterans. Ericsson’s season ending injury allowed one of them to draw into the lineup and now with Smith gone, the other one gets a spot for the rest of the season.

These three have definitely been a bright spot for the Red Wings D-corps this season. Jensen leads all team defensemen with an on-ice 5v5 CF% of 51.51. In addition to this, all three of them have an iCF/60 of over 9.70 and lead team defensemen in 5v5 SF/60. They bring some speed and aggression to the table and, with Smith gone, their confidence will grow even more with the additional minutes and responsibility.

From Brendan Smith’s perspective, this is a welcome trade. Despite his solid play and great underlying stats, Smith always struggled to find his place on the Red Wings roster. He frequently found himself in Mike Babcock’s doghouse and has been a healthy scratch by Jeff Blashill on more than one occasion. This trade gives the former 1st rounder a fresh start on a new team that is heading to the playoffs and making a run for the Cup.

To really gear up for the postseason, the Rangers needed to improve on their biggest flaw: the blueline. After losing Keith Yandle to free agency last offseason, the team has relied pretty heavily on captain Ryan McDonagh and ageing goalie Henrik Lundqvist. Adam Clendening and Brady Skjei have brought some youth to the blueline and they are the only two defensemen on the team with better on-ice CF%s than Smith this season. With veteran Dan Girardi out of the lineup due to injury, Smith slides nicely into the 2nd pairing with Nick Holden.

In conclusion, I am of the opinion that the Brendan Smith trade is an overwhelming positive for the Red Wings. In the short term, it loosens the bottleneck on their blueline by allowing all three of Xavier Ouellet, Nick Jensen, and Ryan Sproul draw into the lineup every night. In the long term, they have a 2nd round and 3rd draft pick for their future. It’s a good step towards the rebuild they so desperately need.

As for Brendan Smith, he gets to go on another playoff run this year and, this time, it’s for a team that is competitive and looking past the first round. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see him re-sign in New York this Summer for a term that is similar to what the Red Wings offered him. They will be needing the help on their blueline going forward and Smith will get to play for a team with a tonne of history and heritage.

At this point in his career, Smith’s earned the right to decide where he wants to play. He had a good run in Detroit and Red Wings fans will for sure miss him.