What’s going on with Dylan Larkin?

In his rookie season a year ago, Dylan Larkin was THE GUY in Detroit.

An all-star, 23 goals, a playoff appearance and the youngest Detroit Red Wing since seemingly the moon landing, Larkin was the American Dream personified if there ever was one. Stepping into a big role immediately for his boyhood team, for once, the Wings had a youngster they could show off to the rest of the league. 

This season, he’s on pace for a whoppin’ 29 points. Matching up with the performance last season of… Antoine Roussel. By comparison, both Thomas Vanek and Henrik Zetterberg have 30 and 31 points respectively so far this season. If this team is Larkin’s to lead, this year isn’t looking like the one he’ll do it.

So what’s going on with #71?

Last season was a very rare one for Wings fans, as they really hadn’t seen a rookie as young and as effective as Larkin in a literal generation. But for most other teams in the league, having a player immediately step into the lineup after being drafted isn’t necessarily anything unusual. Larkin likely won’t end up as a franchise player, and still has quite a ways to go before he can call himself amongst the league’s best. 

If Larkin had followed the team’s traditional developmental model and taken an extra year or two before stepping into the NHL, we likely wouldn’t need to have a conversation about a 29-point pace season for a 20-year old. However, because he’s shown that he can do better, he’s mounted himself worthy of a little questioning of his true talent.

Larkin’s featured a smorgasbord of linemates this year, playing most frequently with Gustav Nyqvist. Flipping back and forth between wing and center, it’s possible that he’s not quite been comfortable in a single role and that’s been part of the reason behind his demise. 

Averaging 16 minutes per night like he was a season ago, Larkin hasn’t suffered from a shortage of ice time. However, his 6.43 on-ice shooting percentage at 5v5 496th. (Not-so-fun fact: Tomas Jurco is tied for 700th place, last in the league.) 

80 shots at 5 on 5… first on the team. 135… 55 missed or blocked, meaning just three out of every five shots he’s taking are making it to the net. While he hasn’t had any trouble generating this offence, it could swing into more effective numbers over the second half if he’s able to hit the target a little more often.

On the powerplay, Larkin hasn’t  5 points last year, compared to 3 this year in about 2/3rds of the overall ice time. Why he’s not more effective on the powerplay is anyone’s best guess, but with much of his game coming out of, it’s understandable he’s not as effective as a stagnant shooter.

While Larkin may not be the same level he was at last season, a sophomore slump shouldn’t be too much to worry about. That being said, it’s important to keep our future predictions for Larkin within the realm of reality, and realize he’s still just a 20-year old finding his place in the league.