The only issue with Dylan Larkin is perception

(Ken Lund / Creative Commons)

A lot of the discussion this season regarding Dylan Larkin has centered around his supposed sophomore slump. The questions range from dull to cutting, people want to know why the player that they once labeled as the messiah isn’t playing up to his name. 

It isn’t a question of his play, really. It is more of how you think of Dylan Larkin. It’s how most fans think of young players, they want them to be the very best. No one wants to accept slow incremental growth, especially if it means taking a step back. Looking past a fan’s hopes for a second, Larkin hasn’t had the terrible year everyone believes he has had.

First taking a look at Larkin’s underlying numbers, you can immediately see the difference in why he has played the way he has. His shot differential percentages are down going from a 52%CF to a 49%CF at even strength, oddly enough, his relative percentages to his teammates are both in the positive and are similar from year to year.

It means that his teammates aren’t doing him any favors and they may in fact be weighing him down. His PDO suggests that when it is sitting just above 96%, not great when the general baseline is 100. He hasn’t been able to get any goaltending and the players he is playing with aren’t helping put pucks in the back of the net. 

Similarly, his own shooting percentage has dropped a couple of decimal points. With his current shot output and his shooting percentage from last year it would only a two goal improvement this year. Meanwhile if you switch the percentage to this year with his shot output you’re looking at a four or five goal drop off from him. Larkin isn’t shooting the puck like he was a year ago and it is befuddling.

In addition to his lack of shots, his ice time has been steadily going down all year. Since January 31, Larkin has only played more than 16 minutes twice. Last year, he averaged 16:33 in TOI. So what happened? Has he fallen out of favor with Blashill? Has he been nursing an injury that no one knows about? Too many factors have changed from year to year to just shrug it off.

If you have been watching the Wings play at all this year, you know that they aren’t great. They’re a team that is going to be in the lottery this year and will have a distinct chance at getting the top pick. This means that the players on the team aren’t great. You can go all up and down the Wings line up and point at an area of need or improvement. 

Larkin has seen large swaths of time with Riley Sheahan, the guy who hasn’t scored a goal all season long. At this point it is more of an aberration than an actual indictment of his play. Nonetheless, it is effecting #71 immensely. 

A slight change that may be contributing to his slower play is the fact that he is taking significantly more defensive starts than he did last year. Not enough to shift his play but enough to make you take a second look at the numbers. It is another area that could use some improvement, put him in a spot where he can succeed.

The Wings want to use him as an all-situations dynamo and he has a chance of being one some day. Adjusting his usage after one year though is asking for trouble. Why not keep putting him in advantageous offensive spots? What is there to lose? The team isn’t dominating anyone, so put the puck on Larkin’s stick in the offensive zone more often.

It doesn’t matter whether you are a fan or a front office type, the hype ends up getting to everyone. As soon as Larkin came into the league and was blowing by people, the expectations were always going to be slightly higher than the reality. Larkin was good last year, no doubt about it, he just wasn’t tearing down the constructs of hockey with his bare hands. He is a good, young, fast hockey player and people wanted him to be their McDavid, their Eichel and he just isn’t that.

Larkin isn’t a disappointment or a bust because he isn’t those players, guess what 99% of the league aren’t those players. It’s time to adjust accordingly and allow for his growth to come naturally. As the Wings continue to rebuild, Larkin will get the chance at playing with better and more skilled players. That only means a bright future for him.

Changes are going to be made to ensure Larkin finds his groove once again but until then some nuance needs to be added when evaluating Larkin. Not everything is so black and white, putting him as the face of the franchise is too quickly and needs to be handled carefully. It puts the burden on him and if the stats show anything, he needs players around him to help him out. He’s not going to do it all by himself.

Allow Larkin to play to his strengths and he just might surprise you.