On the block: Brendan Smith

After Mike Babcock had left to join the Toronto Maple Leafs, many believed that the anchor that was holding down Brendan Smith was gone. That all of the untapped offensive potential in the world was going to come spilling out and they were going to see a completely different player. As the trade deadline approaches on March 1st, the Red Wings should be sellers and Smith is a player they should definitely look at moving.

Smith has been injured for a good portion of this year and has five points in twenty-four games. The numbers and the cap hit don’t match up. He has a contract that will be expiring this summer and for any team looking for a rental, he could be ideal. Even when healthy, he is a player that coaches don’t know what to do with. He can make a mistake but also set you up for a game-winning goal. You’ll want to pull your hair out by the time you’re done with him. 

Is he someone that would be worth all the potential “trouble”?

Offensively, he is without a doubt someone you want on your team. He isn’t overly quick and he isn’t going to “wow” you with his puck handling, he is just a solid offensive contributor. It doesn’t hurt that his shot differential numbers when is on the ice automatically make the Wings a better team. Last year out of all defensemen, he was tops in CF%Rel, a way to gauge shot differential numbers comparatively to his teammates. He wiped the floor with them and it wasn’t very close either. 

It may lead to an organization that is analytically sound taking a look at him and kicking the tires. Everything about him including his size and style of play is prototypical. He has some old school snarl to put with the new school analytics. Given the treatment he has had in recent memory, you could have him as a depth option during the stretch run and he likely wouldn’t cause a stink about it.

This isn’t just some recency bias against Smith, the guy is constantly injured. Not to mention when he isn’t, he is then being scratched. He has yet to play an entire season in the NHL and this is going on his sixth year in the league. If you’re getting him as a rental you likely wouldn’t care about his injury history considering you are looking at him as a short-term option. Where you really begin to get into murky waters is discussing anything past this year. At 27 years of age, is he already heading towards a steep decline in production due to his injuries?

It’s hard to say exactly if that is the case but he doesn’t have a lot of evidence backing him up saying that he can be an NHL contributor on a regular basis.

Many old school coaches are still in the game and they evaluate on a black and white basis. You don’t perform? You sit. You do perform? You play. They don’t have time to “trust the process” and let a player find his footing. Smith will need to be used in the right situation for him to succeed and the amount of people that could use his services may be bigger than you think.

Almost every team in the league could use a gifted offensive defensemen. Smith should be one of the hottest commodities at the deadline but because of his injuries, he has mostly been forgotten. If you’re looking at the market right now as Detroit, you could eat money on his contract since it is expiring and if possible, you’d like to get him out of the Atlantic. Holland is old school in his approach and very rarely if ever makes a deal with team’s in his division.

Two Atlantic team’s right off the bat make sense but the price may be a little too high for what they are actually getting. The Leafs make sense because of their analytics department and the Bruins make sense because they can use all the help they can get on the back end. Both could make the money work if need be as well.

The Oilers and Panthers though would kill two birds with one stone. They could take on Smith’s contract fully and they both could use him in their line up immediately. While they both have had players that internally have stepped up, Smith would be a boon for both of them. How could they say no when an immediate upgrade on a short term basis is staring them right in the face?

It wouldn’t be out of the question that the Wings hold on to Smith, it would just be a sign that the team isn’t fully ready to rebuild. It makes sense given the team’s recent history but it just seems like they are constantly delaying the inevitable. 

Why not just dive in?