Messing up the Tatar contract situation would be the nail in the coffin for Ken Holland

Tomas Tatar is currently not under contract with the Detroit Red Wings.

One look through the Red Wings cap situation and you’ll see a whole lot of question marks and very few logical answers. To an uneducated outsider, you might expect a team with these types of contracts to be a Stanley Cup contender who’s looking to keep their core together for the long run.

Instead, we get this:

With four forwards already making over $5 million per year, Tomas Tatar unsigned, and Andreas Athanasiou also an RFA, the Wings are in a bit of a cap crunch.

Two important pieces of info came out this week: re Tatar.

One, he’s filed for arbitration but seeking a multi-year deal beforehand.

Two, if Tatar does go to arbitration and gets awarded a one-year deal, it might be his last contract with the Red Wings.

If the Wings allow Tomas Tatar to go to UFA, even if they work out a trade deal for him, it would more likely than not be a mistake. Here’s three reasons why the Wings losing Tatar would be a bad move for their team, and the career of Ken Holland:

It should be obvious, but this guy can score. It’s his best skill, and considering the idea of hockey is to score more than your opponent, it’s a good skill to have.

Over the past four seasons, Tatar has scored 94 goals, which pits him 35th in the NHL in that timeframe.

He’s hit 20 goals at even strength alone twice already and is one goal away from 100 in his career.

Over the past four years, Tatar has the 1st, 5th, 8th, and 10th most goals in a single season by a Wings player. He’s the only Detroit player to hit the 20 goal mark three times in that span.

While he might not be “elite”, he’s certainly capable of being a top-line scoring winger with very strong defensive ability as well. In a league where goal scoring is tough to find, Tatar provides legitimate value as the Wings’ top goal scoring threat and consistently one of their better forwards.

While the stats community tends to peg the peak of a player at around 24-25, that doesn’t mean they immediately fall off after that. At age 26, expecting Tatar to improve much on his point production or defensive play is unlikely, but it’s very possible for him to maintain about the same level of production for the next five or so seasons if he can remain healthy. If the Wings return to the playoffs within the next three years, Tatar will still have a few good years left before he’s heading into the twilight stage of his career. Few high-skill players like him dip off before the age of 30, and even if he loses some foot speed, his shot isn’t likely to drop off much over the next few years.

Ken Holland over the course of this offseason has been more than a little confusing about his plans for the future of the Detroit Red Wings franchise. But one thing appears to be clear: they don’t really seem very interested in stripping things down to zero and selling off their “stars” in an attempt to tank does not really sound like something they’re interested in doing.

If the Red Wings were to trade away Tatar next season while on a one-year deal, they’re probably at most picking up a late first round pick or a high second rounder on a rental deal. Maybe they can pick up something a little better, but he’s a complementary piece on a hypothetical expiring deal.

If they were to sign him to a one-year deal and NOT trade him at all and let him walk to free agency, and assuming the Red Wings are in another rough year, they would’ve managed to get exactly 17 playoff games out of one one of their best goal scoring talents of the last decade.

Ken Holland screwing this contract up would be impressive, but not surprising. He’s had a history of messing up the team’s marquee players and supplementary pieces. If the Wings manage to mess this situation up, it could be the final piece that finally forces the out-of-touch GM out-of-office.