Why We Shouldn’t Be Worried About Dylan Larkin’s Lack Of Goals

In some ways, the writing was on the wall for Dylan Larkin last year. In his rookie season, he exploded into the league, scoring six points in his first five games and earning a spot on the All-Star Team where he broke the twenty-year-old fastest skater record. After the All-Star break, though, he started to taper off. Teams were aware of his bursting speed and caught on quickly to his tendencies with the puck.

Then, a disappointing showing on the Under-23 team at the World Cup of Hockey foreshadowed a lackluster sophomore outing that saw him put up a measly 32 points in 80 games. The poor season was bookended by a strong, confidence-building tournament at the World Hockey Championships.

Fast forward through a Summer of hard work and self-improvement and Larkin has bounced back in a big way. In 26 games, he’s got 22 points, which puts him on pace for a 69 point season (assuming he plays all 82 games). That’s more than twice what he put up last year and over twenty points more than his rookie season.

It’s an exciting start, but of Larkin’s 22 points this season, 18 of them have been assists. He’s only scored four goals through the first 26 games of the season, three of them coming at 5v5. Is this something the Red Wings should be concerned about? After a six game stretch in which the team went 0-3-3 and were outscored 26-13, they could use the goal scoring support from their second line centre.

The truth is, Larkin’s lack of goals this year is largely due to bad luck. He’s on a slower goal scoring pace than previous seasons, but his 6% shooting percentage is far below his career average of 9.4%. At 5v5, Larkin’s shooting at a rate of 8 shots-per-sixty minutes, which is up from his 6.98 S/60 last season. In addition to this, the majority of his shots are coming from the high-danger slot area in front of the net.

These are good quality shots, too. Larkin’s 5v5 48.94% expected goals-for percentage is third among all Red Wings forwards, yet his scoring ranks 9th on the team. He’s also leading the team with a 52.68% Corsi-For percentage at 5v5.

There’s no doubt that Larkin has been one of Detroit’s best players this year. He’s improved his defensive play, which has resulted in more time on the penalty kill; he’s improved his zone entry and puck possession, which has resulted in more time on the powerplay; and he’s shooting more and creating more chances at 5v5, which has resulted in his team-leading 22 points (13 of which have come at 5v5). His strong playmaking abilities have given him a team-leading 18 assists.

These are all positives for Larkin this season. The goal scoring will come as long he continues to shoot from the high-danger areas. A 6% shooting percentage will even itself out over the course of the season, which means we have many Dylan Larkin goals to look forward to in the coming months.