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A Deeper Look at the Tomas Tatar Trade

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Photo credit:© Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Thomas Williams
6 years ago
Among all the Red Wings-related chaos and who did or did not move at the Trade Deadline, there stands a remarkably well-thought trade that demonstrates this team’s foresight into the future.
A trade like this shows what direction the current management of this Red Wings team is going in.
Draft picks are the most future of future assets. Holland and co. could have gone and acquired a prospect ready to burst into the NHL next season, but most likely would not get as much value as they could from a Tomas Tatar trade as they did.
Prior to last year’s NHL Entry Draft, Scott Cullen of TSN extensively went into the value of certain draft picks. Summing up this entire article – a smart management team would want to acquire as many draft picks as possible when it comes to the later rounds. Quantity is better than quality when it comes to the draft.
Explained by Cullen, if your team has a top-5 pick in any draft, it’s pretty damn likely that you will leave that draft with a contributing NHL player. Again, quality comes into play at the very high end of the draft, but as teams get deeper it doesn’t matter as much.
The Red Wings were able to come away from the deadline with three more chances at getting a significant contributing player.
In the top-93 picks of the upcoming draft, the Wings will most likely have seven and a total of eleven in the whole draft. That is more than any other team. A sure sign of management wanting to build through the draft and looking at the timeline of the current Red Wings core of Dylan Larkin, Anthony Mantha and Andreas Athanasiou.
This is a great way to start a retool, rebuild or whatever you want to call it.

The Contract

Not only do the Red Wings give up an aging asset to acquire some picks for the future, but they also acquire some flexibility in their cap.
For the Wings, the most important thing is to get rid of some of those contracts that the same management group signed in the first place. In the past week or so, they did exactly that with shipping out Tatar and Petr Mrazek.
It always looks bad when a team is at the top of the league in cap hit, but towards the bottom of the standings. With this move and some UFAs coming off the books at the end of the season, the Red Wings will hopefully not look like that poorly-managed team.
If the Wings are able to shed another bad long-term contract this summer, then locking up the young RFAs long-term will be easy.
Moving out Tatar provides that flexibility and more.

Timeline

We all know the Red Wings are not a powerhouse in the NHL anymore and will probably not be for quite a long time. So why keep any players that are in the prime of their careers right now?
Tatar is 27 and under contract until he is 30.
Tatar does not fit with the plan that the Wings should have in place – to build through the draft and around the young core of Larkin, Mantha and Athanasiou. Obviously the plan was changed to this after the Wings signed Tatar to that 4-year extension, but as long as they are smart with the direction they are going in, they can build a forward-thinking team.

His Play

His on-ice effect is definitely secondary when discussing this trade. The focus is more on his contract and age than what the Wings look like without him in the lineup.
But truth is, at even-strength his performance is replaceable.
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Micah Blake McCurdy, hockeyviz.com
He was used in an obvious primary offensive role, but he would give up just as many chances the other way.
Among all his teammates this season, Tatar is 15th in  5v5 Primary Points per 60 minutes, 7th in 5v5 CF%, 12th in 5v5 GF% and a whopping 19th in Expected Goals For +/-.
Simply put, his even-strength performance is even worse than it seems. A mediocre offensive player on a mediocre offensive team.
Vegas acquired a middle-6 player that can perform if used just on the powerplay. He deserves the time that he gets and produced a lot of key goals for the Red Wings on the man advantage – but to pair that to what Vegas had to give up for him is remarkable.
I simply do not see that much of a difference in play between the Red Wings with Tatar, and the Red Wings without.

The Future

The Red Wings have younger and much cheaper players that can replace Tatar and produce at a similar rate.
As confirmed by Ansar Khan of MLive.com, Tyler Bertuzzi will be replacing Tatar on the Larkin line.
Bertuzzi has been performing well and deserves the promotion up the lineup. He has been producing at even-strength really well for the line that he has been on. At 1.46 5v5 Primary Points per 60, he is tied for 3rd with Zetterberg in that category.
Whether Bertuzzi is a long-term replacement or another young forward is, the Wings have the assets (present or future) to easily replace and likely upgrade on Tatar.
At the end of the day, the Red Wings didn’t lose much on the ice and gained a ton of ground on the slow process of rebuilding.

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