Would ending the playoff streak next year be a bad thing for the long-term?

The Detroit Red Wings, right now, are stuck in an infinite loop of mediocrity. Every year they play out the season, squeak into the playoffs, lose in the first round to a good team, and then barely fix their problem only to the point where they can be an above average team. Rinse. Repeat.

This has been the Red Wings ever since Nicklas Lidstrom retired in 2012, and their failure to replace him. They tried to get Ryan Suter that summer, failed, and then settled for Kyle Quincey. In 2014, when there was plenty of solid defensemen like Christian Ehrhoff, Anton Stralman, and Matt Niskanen on the market, they tried to sign Dan Boyle and Stephane Robidas, and then settled for… Kyle Quincey.

And now that we may have seen the last of Pavel Datsyuk, we could possibly be looking at the end of the playoff streak, as unless they manage to sign Steven Stamkos, there’s no way that they can replace him, and then suddenly, two of the three cornerstones of your franchise since the lockout are gone with no replacement. I like some of Detroit’s youth, but there is no way that any of them can replace Datsyuk. Not to mention that Zetterberg is starting to hit his aging regression, and suddenly the future looks bleak.

Wings fans are looking into this season and are starting to get worried about their playoff chances in the upcoming season. Sure, they’re in the weakest division in the league, but look at the competition. Florida is poised to become a contender for years. Tampa Bay has made the Conference Finals WITHOUT their top scorer and second best defenseman, proving that they can survive without Stamkos if it comes to it. Montreal will be getting Carey Price back next season. Ottawa just added a coaching staff that could benefit the team in a surprising way. Heck, even Toronto and Buffalo have a chance considering how their young players are developing. The Atlantic is no Central division, but by the way it’s trending, being average won’t cut it next season.

But, even if the Wings miss the playoffs, it should be no cause for concern. In fact, it could potentially benefit them.

Let’s get a couple things straight.

Yes, the playoff streak is important. It’s the longest active streak among the major four sports leagues, and it exemplifies the model of consistency that Detroit boasts. It holds a special place in the hearts of Wings fans, and it always seems to be of significant importance for them to make the playoffs.

Yes, making the playoffs gives you a chance at the Cup. However, Detroit would greatly benefit from missing the playoffs, for several reasons.

First, despite the fact that making the playoffs gives you a chance to win the Cup, it is certainly weighted, in the sense that not every team is a Cup contender. For example, in these playoffs, Minnesota made the playoffs, but there was almost no way that they get through Dallas, St. Louis, and then San Jose or Nashville, before facing one of Tampa or Pittsburgh in the finals. Not every team has an equal chance.

Detroit is one of those teams. While they have usually excelled in the playoffs earlier on in the streak, they haven’t in the last five years. They have just 13 wins in the postseason since 2011-12, which is tied with Minnesota for 14th. They’ve only won one series, against a Ducks team in game seven (which is super easy). They’re mediocre at best, and the more they continue this streak, the longer the mediocrity continues (although, early signs of the offseason show that Ken Holland is dedicated to making changes).

Second, making the playoffs is ruining the chance at getting elite players to truly replace Datsyuk, Zetterberg, and Lidstrom. It sounds silly, but it’s true. As Adam Laskaris pointed out in his Dylan Larkin article the other day, long are the days of players outside of the first round being high end scorers. Yes, Datsyuk, Zetterberg, and Lidstrom were drafted beyond the first round, but they are the exception, not the rule. Also, even Detroit didn’t think they’d be their best players in that draft, otherwise they would be first round picks. The Wings might need a top 10 pick or two if they want to replace their elite players, and unless they trade up (try and find a player on the Wings roster who you’d want to trade that could actually provide a nice return), they need to miss the playoffs to get that pick.

Finally, it’s a step in the right direction if they want to contend for the Cup. It sounds weird, but it will. The team needs to finally commit to a long term plan, and they are unable to do that when they focus on the short term of making the playoffs every year. Once they miss the playoffs, they can decide what they want to do to with the team.

Which leads me to my next question…

There are three ways that the Wings can go about their future plans. They can either continue the course, do a “blow up the team” rebuild, or retool the team. But, which one works the best? Let’s take a look at each one and decide.

This plan consists of the Red Wings not doing a damn thing. Basically, what they’ve been doing the last five years anyway. This is probably the worst idea of the bunch. Not only does this idea not provide the Red Wings with franchise players, it keeps the mediocrity of the team around. I like Jurco, Larkin, Athanasiou, and Pulkkinen, but none of them are going to replace Datsyuk and Zetterberg. I like some of the Wings younger defensemen, but none of them are going to replace Lidstrom. This long term plan would provide the Wings with very little progress, but it was an option that needed to be identified.

This might be the smartest option for the Wings. They can unload all of the veterans for assets, rejuvenate the lineup with youth, maybe even “tank” (perform poorly might be the better words) for a year or two, add some top prospects to the team, and suddenly 3-4 years from now, the team is looking like a cup contender. Look no further than a few hours north. No, not Buffalo. As much as it might make Wings fans cringe, the Leafs might be a good example of what to do. They’ve done an excellent job of unloading terrible contracts, as well as all the veterans on the team for assets to create a bright future. It might be a good idea for the Wings to follow suit.

But, there’s one issue. They have the most unattractive roster for a rebuild. A quick glance at their roster and their contracts, and it would be nearly impossible to start the rebuild, never mind go through with it. When it comes to a rebuild, you have to divide the team into two sections: players you want to keep, and players you want to trade. So, let’s take a look at the Red Wings, and who goes where. Note that I’m excluding Richards, Helm, Quincey, and Miller from this list, since they’re UFA’s, and in a rebuild they are players you don’t want clogging up roster spots.

That’s a very small list of players that you would want to trade. While this could be perceived as a good thing, and that it means the team has lots of youth, but it’s also a problem, since that in all this youth, there are no franchise level players, and we have very little assets to get rid of. It also makes it worse when you look at the contracts of these assets. The only players who you could make the case for being tradeable is Datsyuk if he returns (and there’s no way that he stays if he gets traded), Mike Green next season when it’s his UFA year, and Luke Glendening. Yes, you read that correctly. Luke Glendening might be the only tradeable asset that the Wings want to trade. And you aren’t getting much for him (unless we see another Paul Gaustad for a 1st trade). All the other vets have contracts that are bad enough that it diminishes any value the player has, maybe to the point that the Wings would have to give up picks for a team to take them, which would be very unproductive in a rebuild.

So, while this would be the smartest option for the Wings in theory, it literally won’t happen, because it would be almost impossible for them to pull it off correctly. I mentioned how the Leafs did it, but in their two biggest cases (Clarkson and Phaneuf), one was traded because Columbus came begging at their doorstep to take their uninsured LTIR contract in Nathan Horton, and the other was via a pump and dump, and they still had to take back a higher salary, albeit in shorter term. So, while they unloaded those contracts, it required some sacrifices, as well as miracles and smart management. Who’s to say that the Wings can do the same?

So, with the rebuild completely out of the question, this leaves the retool as their best option. Basically, they keep their roster mostly the same (like they have a choice), and work around it. How do they go about this? Well, there are certainly some things they could do. They could try and unload one or two of the bad contracts in their system, preferably Jimmy Howard and an unoccupied Pavel Datsyuk, to create some cap space, while also not resigning any of their UFA’s. Then, they need to make some bold moves. Signing Steven Stamkos would certainly be one, and he would be an ideal replacement for Datsyuk. Also, adding a top 2/4 D would be smart, whether it be Kevin Shattenkirk, Sami Vatanen, or Jacob Trouba in the trade market, or Keith Yandle, Alex Goligoski, or Brian Campbell in free agency.

Another thing that they could do is put forth a lineup that is very youth friendly. An ideal lineup would be as follows:

Tatar – Larkin – Nyquist

Athanasiou – Sheahan – Mantha

Pulkkinen – Zetterberg – Jurco

Abdelkader – Glendening – someone else

DeKeyser – Green

Kronwall – Smith

Marchenko – Ericsson/AHL D

Then, you ride out this lineup. Whether they win the Cup, or finish last, you stick with it. If they do good, then it’s a good sign that the youth will be able to handle the load of being a competitive team. If they don’t, then they finish in the basement, and get a top pick, and an elite, franchise changing prospect. It’s a win-win situation.

You go with this until all the bad contracts have been weeded out, and hopefully they can start to truly contend for a Cup. It would be a drastic shift in the organization’s philosophy, but it might be what they need to do to get the job done.

The Wings are in a jam, and by the looks of it, they’re going to need to change the Detroit model if they want to get out of it. They can’t rebuild the team, because Ken Holland’s loyalty to the veteran players has screwed any chance of that. They can’t stay the course, because it’s not a good course. Fans might have to go through years of pain as the team develops into a Cup contender, but it’s what needs to be done.

And it all goes back to the original question: Would ending the playoff streak next year be a bad thing for the long term? No, in fact, it needs to be done to tarnish the image of the Detroit model, and make it’s fans realize how outdated and old school it is. If not, everyone will continue to look at the Wings as the image of  consistency, when the only thing they’ve been consistent at is getting their butts kicked in the first round.

It’s a tough pill to swallow, Wings fans. It’s weird to accept that your team has to suck to be good again, because it’s something they haven’t had to do since the Detroit Dead Wings era, but it needs to be done. Otherwise, the Wings won’t be the model of consistency, they’ll be the model of mediocrity.