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Wings Nation 2017-18 Player Review: Frans Nielsen

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Tom Mitsos
5 years ago
The Detroit Red Wings paid a hefty price for Frans Nielsen when they signed him to a six-year, $31.5 million deal two summers ago. He hasn’t lived up to that $5.25 million cap hit, and at 34 years old, it’s unreasonable to expect him to be anything other than a third-line center who can chip in between 35 and 45 points.
The Red Wings definitely overpaid for him, but he’s responsible defensively and an average playmaker.

PET Chart

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As you can see in the PET chart above, Nielsen is a pretty average forward. He doesn’t offer much in the goal-scoring department, but he makes up for it with solid defense. I was surprised to see his possession entry percentage in the blue, meaning he passes the puck or carries the puck into the offensive zone more than he dumps it in.
Controlled entries are something the Red Wings struggled with as a whole this season, but Nielsen was one of the bright spots in that sense.
Being a more defensive-minded center means coach Jeff Blashill leans on him when faceoffs begin in the defensive zone. He ranked fifth on the team in offensive zone faceoff percentage (43.15) and was the third-lowest forward behind Luke Glendening and Darren Helm.
This chart more or less sums up what I expect from a third-line center. Problem is Nielsen is making the money of a top-six forward.

Crunching Numbers

Boxcars

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Nielsen was able to stay pretty healthy this season, playing 79 games for the second consecutive season. However, he only had 33 points, his lowest point total since the 2008-09 season (not including the lockout-shortened 2012-13 season), his first season in the NHL playing more than 20 NHL games.
He didn’t shoot the puck very much this season, shooting almost 30 shots less than last season, but he improved his shooting percentage 1.4 percent. Nielsen generally racks up his points with assists, but those dropped off to 17 this season, which was a career low.
The five short-handed points were the most he’s had since the 2010-11 season. Nielsen spent most of the time on the PK with Darren Helm with so-so results. In total, 24 goals were scored when he was on the ice, but he was able to reduce the number of shots in the low slot.
This season was a low point in almost every statistical category for the Dane.

Corsi

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There weren’t many players on the Red Wings who had a Corsi for percentage above 50, and Nielsen wasn’t one of them. Granted, he takes more defensive zone faceoffs than offensive zone faceoffs, but his line struggled to generate more offensive opportunities.
His relative Corsi of -0.19 is about average compared to the rest of his teammates. He had one of the lowest CA/60 marks on the team (53.74, sixth) but also one of the worst CF/60 marks (50.82, 21st).

Goal-Based

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As stated earlier, Nielsen has never been much of a goal scorer, and the team struggled as a whole defensively. His GA/60 was in the top 10 (2.11, seventh) but his GF/60 (1.86, 20th) was in the bottom 10.

2018-19 Prediction

I can see Nielsen improving next season, but it won’t be earth-shattering by any means. He performed slightly worse than last season, and he’s only getting older. Again, at this point in his career, he’s a fine third-line center with some defensive upside. I expect him to be around the 40-point mark next season.
The Red Wings don’t have a lot of scoring touch, and it’s hard to rack up assists if your teammates aren’t scoring.

Conclusion

Based on the contract he signed two summers ago, Nielsen underperformed significantly. Third-line centers do not make $5.25 million against the cap. Now, if you base his stats on where he is in the lineup, then he’s only slightly below average. He won’t dazzle you with highlight reel goals, but he’s a good depth piece and good on defense.

Final Grade: C

All stats are from Corsica.hockey, Naturalstattrick.com and NHL.com, unless specified otherwise. PET Chart is from Andi Duroux’s work at BSN Denver.

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