Wings Nation 2016-17 Player Review: Mike Green
6 years ago
When the Red Wings signed Mike Green, they thought they finally had the right-handed, puck-moving defenseman they had craved since Bryan Rafalski’s retirement. In the 2015-16 season, his first with the Wings, Green struggled throughout the year. This looked like another Ken Holland signing gone wrong. Green needed to live up to his 3-year $18 million contract. He needed to improve in his own zone and up his power play production.
Green’s play this year showed he could be a very valuable asset for next season, at the trade deadline or on the ice. Let’s dive into how his year went.
Hero Chart:
Green’s Hero Chart is impressive. He is receiving middle-pairing minutes with the Red Wings and his underlying numbers show that his production may be above that level. His G/60 and P/60 are impressive. He is a very strong offensive defenseman in this league. Green’s possession numbers, though not as high, are still impressive. He has a positive impact on shot share that is on the level of a high-end, middle-pair defenseman. Green’s number’s show he would suffice in a top-pairing role (he’s the Wings’ best defenseman), but could thrive on a team where he could be a true middle-pair defenseman.
Stats:
Boxcars:
Mike Green is no longer the offensive juggernaut that he once was, but he is still putting up solid offensive numbers. He ranked first in goals and points amongst Red Wings’ defensemen. His -20 rating is a little alarming, but the stat is not very indicative of play especially with Green being on such a bad team. Green’s 10 power play points ranked third on the team and his 125 shots on goal were tops amongst the Wings’ defense. Green’s numbers were far better than any other Wings’ defensemen although I think, with a better power play, his numbers could even improve next season.
Corsi:
Green’s possession numbers this season were well below his career averages (which is why his Hero Chart looks so much better). His CF% ranked 4th of the Red Wings’ defensemen (minimum 20 games played). His shortcomings in his own zone results in opposing teams being able to hold the majority of shot share when he is on the ice. His numbers are a little lower than they could be since he is on the 24th ranked CF% team. As an offensive defenseman, Green needs to work to improve his possession numbers for next season as he is best when his team has the puck.
Goal Based:
Mike Green’s goal based stats mirrored his Corsi — bad. He was playing against stronger competition this year than he has in the past. This could explain some of the drop off in his numbers. He was third on the team in GF%, continuing the theme of him being best suited on the middle pair. If the Red Wings’ could acquire a true number one defensemen, he could slide into the second pair and thrive. Until then, he is going to be slotted too high on this team as his defensive game is holding him back from eating big minutes.
2017-18 Prediction
Mike Green will probably again be the Wings’ best defenseman next season. He moves the puck well, jumps up in the play, and can produce from the point. His turnovers and defensive game will never be perfect, but a small improvement in those areas could go a long way. I predict Green will score around 40 points and be a valuable asset to the Red Wings at the trade deadline. His one year and $6 million remaining on his deal will not be hard to move next season, and the Wings’ should be able to get a first round pick in return from a team trying to make a run at the cup.
Conclusion:
Mike Green is what he is. He is a very good second pair defenseman who is thrust into a top-2 role with the Wings. Green puts up strong offensive numbers and is one of the better defenseman in the league when his team has the puck. He struggles in his own zone and that negatively impacts his underlying numbers, which are lower than expected due to his team being so poor this season.
Green is not the defenseman the Red Wings have craved since the departures of Lidstrom and Rafalski, but that’s okay. He was much better this season than last, and he may improve further during his 3rd year in the Red Wings’ system. Green should fetch a sizable return at the trade deadline this year if the Red Wings are out of playoff contention, which would be beneficial to the rebuild.
