As the Stanley Cup playoffs wind down and a champion is almost decided, the excitement for fans outside of Playoff teams is beginning to grow while we all impatiently await the Las Vegas Golden Knights Expansion Draft upcoming on June 21st. It has been a topic under debate all season with projected protection lists and analysis coming from all sources and everyone seems to have a different opinion for all 30 franchise’s choices. For the Detroit Red Wings, the choices that they make in the upcoming off-season will show exactly how this management group sees their team. It has been repeated over and over that Ken Holland still views the roster as one that can contend and he believes that the Wings will be back in the playoffs next season but now it is time for him to show if he truly believes this or if he will finally break down and begin a rebuild to create a new younger core team that will contend for a cup further down the road.

Before I share who I believe the Red Wings SHOULD protect, I would like to go into who I believe they actually WILL protect. Detroit has a long history of favoring veteran players over young ones trying to establish themselves and I fully expect that trend to continue with some of their protection choices.  This has been “The Red Wings Way” in the past and my expectation is that it will take precedence over long term benefits of the team going forward in a few selections of players to be protected. Although this will be the case for some selections, there are still a few young players that simply must be protected so I trust to see those correct choices made but when coming up with a strategy to expose some unwanted contracts, I am predicting player loyalty to be more important then long term financial advantages with the Red Wings protection choices.

Honestly, there is not a ton to complain about with this list as most of these players are essential parts of the Red Wings offense and have really earned their protection status. The only player that would probably not be on most peoples’ choice for a protected player is Justin Abdelkader due to his long term contract which he struggled to deliver value for in this past season. My reason that I believe the Red Wings will in fact protect him is simple… He is a leader on the ice who is still in his prime. Abdelkader was given an “A” on his jersey after Pavel Datsyuk left the team and provides a source of “Grit” that both the fans and management group have grown to value over the years. I really don’t see any way that the Red Wings don’t protect the local Michigan boy who is one of the leaders for this group. There is also still a large part of me that would not be surprised at all to see Darren Helm protected over Andreas Athanasiou because of the fact that he is more established(Though clearly has less upside) and the franchise would not want him to feel undervalued as a core member of the forward group while AA at times had struggled to crack the lineup.

The defensemen group for protection is likely going to come down to limiting the risks of who you expose. Danny Dekeyser clearly had a down year while he was thrust into a top pair role probably before he was ready due to Kronwall’s inability to continue playing those minutes with his injured knee. I believe that the Red Wings will not want to risk exposing Dekeyser in case he does get selected and this is the year he steps up and becomes that reliable number 2 that Detroit has been expecting him to be. It then becomes a toss up between Ouellet and Jensen being the third player protected and although Jensen was just re-signed this year, I believe he is still relatively unknown and would be easier to sneak through without getting selected.

Although he was vastly outplayed by the veteran Jimmy Howard, there is too much risk involved in exposing the younger Mrazek to Las Vegas as he still possesses the athletic tools to become a truly elite goalie if he can work on his positioning and limiting his aggressiveness. The only scenario I can see that Mrazek is not protected would be if he is traded prior to the expansion draft.

A third line player who is responsible defensively and on a cheap contract would be the exact type of player that Las Vegas would be interested in taking especially if it is someone who’s still young and may have more room to grow their game. For Las Vegas, their strategy will be about picking players who have upside and they can take from a team right now at a discount.

I am of the belief that what the Red Wings need to make the main objective for this expansion draft to hope that Vegas will do us a big favor and select a player with a contract that is not helpful for the Red Wings long term goals. Although Helm and Abdelkader are both better players than Riley Sheahan, their contracts are much more expensive and longer term. Of the forwards exposed I believe that Detroit’s strategy should be to make Las Vegas have to decide… Either select an NHL valuable player on a bad contract or take a low impact player who will not be a big loss for us in the long run. With these protection choices for forwards it would force Las Vegas to either take Helm or Abdlekader, which they may be willing to do since they will likely have trouble hitting the salary cap floor or else they can take a 4th liner or AHL player for a cheaper option.

The exact same strategy that I described for the forwards should be what happens for the defensemen. It would be a fairly significant loss if Las Vegas were to select Danny Dekeyser but at this point I am not willing to gamble that he will show a large improvement over what we have seen for the past few seasons which is a solid defenseman but not one that will be essential 3-5 years from now if this team completes a rebuild. Kronwall being selected could be a loss down the road only if he retires early and creates a recapture penalty for the Red Wings salary cap but I do not suspect that Las Vegas would want to select an older defensemen who struggles to play in back-to-back games. This protection List would make Las Vegas either take one of Jonathan Ericsson, Danny Dekeyser or Niklas Kronwall which would improve Detroit’s cap situation or else they need to gamble on Ryan Sproul or another young AHL defensemen as a less expensive alternative.

Continuing the trend, protecting Mrazek would once again make Las Vegas decide which they want more from Detroit, a current NHL-er who can contribute immediately but will cost them or an AHL player on a cheap contract. I think that Jimmy Howard is probably the most likely Red Wing to be selected by Las Vegas if Sheahan is not available as they have hinted previously that it may be a strategy to take over the goalie market and select 6 or 7 goalies that can be traded later for an increased value. Even if that is not their strategy, Howard is a veteran who proved last season that he still has a lot left in the tank and can be an NHL team’s number 1 goalie for a few more seasons.

This would not be who I hope that Las Vegas selects as I really would like to have both Howard and Mrazek to open next season after watching Petr struggle throughout 2016/17, but in my opinion Howard is the one player who can provide the most value for the salary that will likely be required to pay for a player from Detroit. In a perfect world, Las Vegas is looking for some size on defense and takes Jonathan Ericsson to play the part on a shutdown pairing.

My final thoughts for the upcoming expansion draft are that this should not be seen as a situation that damages our team and we are losing an important player. This is an opportunity for our management to get out for free from one of the bad contracts that are hindering Detroit’s ability to make important roster decisions. I suspect that if Ken Holland wants to make a playoff run next season then players like Abdelkader and Dekeyser will be a part of the opening night roster as they are still effective players and can help this team succeed in the short term. In my mind it is time for a rebuild and these players currently in their late 20’s will not be as effective at the tail end of their contracts so once the roster has been rejuvenated with more young blood in the lineup we are going to be cursing the fact that we still have older players signed on long term contracts.

If you would like to see the rest of WingsNation writers opinions on who should be protected take a look at the links below: