What Sam Gagner can bring to the Red Wings in the final 17 games and beyond

Between the pair of trades the Red Wings and Oilers strung together on Monday, Steve Yzerman’s clear point of emphasis was on the returning draft picks. That’s essentially why Andreas Athanasiou and Mike Green were dealt; to pad the rebuild, for better or for worse. Quite similar to Ken Holland’s “get as many kicks at the can as possible” mantra from his final years with the Red Wings, this new regime is shifting closer to that end of the spectrum.

“Ultimately, I believe you get as many picks as you can — you get the highest picks you can — you increase your odds,” Yzerman said at his post trade deadline press conference. “We have to give up something if we want to be a good team 3 or 4 or 5 years down the road and somewhere along the way we are going to have to hit on some of these picks. The only way to do it is keep them and get more.”

At its core, accumulating as many draft picks as possible at the expense of the NHL roster is dangerous. But one rebuilding teams don’t have much of a choice on. The Red Wings swinging and missing on the majority of their 11 draft picks from 2017 is the epitome of why loading up on darts to throw is a risk. On the other side of the coin if you don’t have the darts to throw, well, you’re setting yourself up for failure.

And the reality is hitting in the first round isn’t enough. Which is especially true for the Red Wings who have only been able to add one additional first round pick since the rebuild started four years ago (Joe Veleno from the Tomas Tatar trade). Other lottery teams like the Devils, Kings, Rangers and Senators have been able to reel in several day one picks through trades. Unfortunately for the Red Wings, they started off the rebuild when it was too late.

Yzerman seemed to agree on the importance of striking gold in the later rounds.

“Simply to sit there and hope that our first rounder is going to work out every year, we need to do better than that,” Yzerman acknowledged. “And the reality is our first rounder is not going to work out every year. So I can’t tell you where they are going to come from but we need the picks and we will keep adding them where we can for the time being.”

Now, obviously, expecting to mine a Nikita Kucherov or Brayden Point or Anthony Cirelli is foolish. But as Wayne Gretzky once said: You miss 100 percent of the shots you don’t take.

Finding players of that caliber, or anywhere in the same ballpark, carries immense difficulty. But it’s not impossible. It just takes time and careful development. Along the way, everyone from the players to management to the fans will have to churn through the darkest of days. Instances like this are where culture really becomes a focal point, which may roll some eyes. That’s a hard sell for a 15-win team, but making the best of a bad situation is imperative. Leadership and a blue collar mentality is largely why Luke Glendening is so highly coveted. As Elliotte Friedman reported in his latest 31 Thoughts column, Yzerman took a hard stance on moving Glendening just like Ken Holland did previously.

With 17 games remaining in the 2019-20 season for the Red Wings, being competitive and picking up as many wins as possible can’t be overlooked. At the very least, the repercussions in the draft lottery from finishing off the year on a high note are minimal. Less so than in 2018-19 when the team won eight of their last 11, a detriment to their draft lottery odds. Whereas this season there is a sizable gap between them and the 30th ranked Kings who have a 16 point advantage.

Under these circumstances, the pickup of Sam Gagner from the Athanasiou trade is an intriguing one. By all accounts, Gagner is still a quality forward with some upside both on and off the ice. No, he won’t replace Athanasiou’s talent, but as an added bonus to the draft picks; he can make a difference for the Red Wings in the final month of the season.

Gagner has been described as a very passionate player and person. He plays for the logo on his sweater, which is why the Edmonton faithful endeared him so much.

While the excitement of adding a scoring winger like Athanasiou was there, the reaction from Oilers fans on the inclusion of Gagner was bittersweet. Gagner should fit right into the Detroit lineup as a key middle-6 forward.

Oilersnation’s Zach Laing thought the Gagner acquisition was a sneaky good move by Yzerman as well.

“Gagner is a player Red Wings fans will quickly grow to love.” Laing said. “After all, Gagner has been a fan favorite in Edmonton for as long as he has been in the NHL. He thinks the game at a very high level and that’s his strongest asset at this point in his career. At 30, he doesn’t have the speed he once did but the aforementioned hockey IQ allows him to be in the right place at the right time.

“He’s put up a modest amount of offence this year, scoring five goals and seven assists in 36 NHL games, playing only 13 minutes a night. He plays high-event hockey and at 5v5 offered up a 52 CF% and a 52.90 xGF% all the while having a low PDO of 95.”

Gagner’s underlying numbers certainly stand out. At 5-on-5 Gagner’s most common linemates this season have been Gaetan Haas (121:09 TOI), James Neal (106:09) and Jujhar Khaira (98:40). He has, however, spent a decent amount of time next to Connor McDavid (74:40). Surprisingly, the pair was below average by xGF% (46.55) and CF% (45.51). Overall, his impact has largely been a fine middle-6 forward.

Additionally, Gagner has enough skill to play on the man-advantage. His right-shot will be quite valuable to the Red Wings, whose only other right-shot forward is Glendening (who isn’t on the power play). From that standpoint, Jeff Blashill will have more to work with at 5-on-4.

The kicker is Gagner is a pending UFA and could very well wish to return to Edmonton. Assuming the fits works in Detroit, Yzerman & Co. will have to work some magic at the negotiating table. This could be a storyline to follow because, after all, the Red Wings could use some veteran forwards with actual positive on-ice results. The only ties Gagner appears to have with the organization is with Shawn Horcoff, the Red Wings Director of Player Development. The two were teammates on the Oilers for six seasons.

With visa issues all cleared up, Gagner should be good to go for Thursday’s game against the Wild. And, with 17 games left on the schedule, he’ll have a chance to help the team. No, not to completely overhaul the direction they’ve been trending in. But to help boost scoring, earn some more wins and establish the pride that has eluded them all season. Give the room some optimism that 2021 can be different.