WGD: GAME 8, RED WINGS @ BLUES

We are just over the two-week mark of this young NHL season and the Red Wings are riding a five-game winning streak and sit at 5-2-0 through seven games. 

“Is it too early to look at the standings?” 

Yes.

“Are you going to do it anyways?”

Yes.

The Red Wings currently sit third in the Atlantic Division behind only the Montreal Canadiens, who do this every October it seems and the Tampa Bay Lightning, who just beat the snot out of the Maple Leafs, so we like that. 

After playing four of the last five games in the friendly confines of Joe Louis Arena, the Red Wings head out on the road for a matchup with the St. Louis Blues tonight. It is only a one-game road swings, before the return to the Joe for two more, but it will be an early measuring stick game for a hot Red Wings team. 

St. Louis has started the season at 4-2-1 and are tied for 15th in the NHL in goals for (2.86)—Detroit is tied for sixth (3.43)—and tied for 10th in goals against (2.71)—the Red Wings are tied for seventh (2.43). 

I’m not a huge analytics guy. You will rarely read one of my pieces that is littered with numbers and abbreviations, but I do put some stock in these numbers. Especially a team’s PDO. For those of you who don’t know what PDO is, it’s simple. It is the team’s shooting percentage + the team’s save percentage.

Now, PDO regularly works out to be around 100. If a team is way above 100, it says they are getting “lucky.” If a team is below 100 it says they’re getting “unlucky.” Many times when a team is well above 100, you can expect the to regress a bit in the coming games. 

I don’t want to be a buzzkill, but…the Red Wings currently have the NHL’s second highest PDO (106.34) thanks to the second best 5v5 save percentage (.953) and third best shooting percentage (11.04). This number however doesn’t guarantee that bad times are ahead, but it definitely points to how the things are definitely going the Red Wings’ way and that their goaltending has been simply outstanding. 

With Buzz Killington now gone, let’s take a look at tonight’s lineups and goaltending matchup. 

Detroit Red Wings Lines courtesy of DailyFaceoff

Justin Abdelkader, who has missed the last two games, skated on Wednesday but is still questionable to return to the lineup tonight. All four Red Wings’ lines have been clicking since they were shuffled because of Abdelkader’s absence, so don’t expect them to rush him back until he’s absolutely 100 percent. Abby is iffy tonight and when he is back, he will likely take Steve Ott’s spot in the lineup and tonight is Ott’s return to St. Louis, so absolutely expect him to play. 

The reason I say that Ott will come out, is because you cannot take Andreas Athanasiou out of the lineup the way he has been playing. He scored a rocket on Saturday vs. the Sharks and sniped again on Tuesday while also adding an assist. The speedy winger is playing great right now and Jeff Blashill will be ridiculed if he scratches him. 

On Tuesday we also saw Thomas Vanek and Gustav Nyquist stay hot. Vanek has now picked up at least one point in five of seven games and has eight points (4G / 4A) to tie Nyquist (3G / 5A) for the team lead. Despite looking dangerous through the first six games, Tuesday was Dylan Larkin’s game to break the ice. He scored two goals in the first period and hopefully that opens the floodgates for the second-year forward. 

On defence, the Red Wings continue to be solid yet unspectacular. It is not a group that is going to win you a Stanley Cup, but they’re playing just fine given the goaltending behind them. Expect Ryan Sproul to remain in the lineup again tonight, he has fit in perfectly and brings an extra offensive element to the lineup that the Red Wings desperately need.

St. Louis Blues Lines courtesy of  DailyFaceoff 

The Blues are an incredibly deep team. Right now they’re missing their 1st/2nd line centre in Jori Lehtera, which has forced Jaden Schwartz into the middle, but that hasn’t seemed to be too difficult of a transition so far. This team is obviously led by Russian sniper Vladimir Tarasenko, who is currently leading the team with eight points (4G / 4A) in seven games. Veterans Alex Steen and Paul Stastny follow close behind with seven points each.

The entire top-9 is capable of putting up strong offensive numbers, much like the Red Wings’ top-9 has done so far. Tonight will be the Red Wings’ first look at Nail Yakupov in a Blues’ uniform. He was acquired on October 7th for next to nothing and has fit in pretty well so far. The former No.1 overall pick has two goals and two assists in seven games. 

The St. Louis blueline is arguably one of the best in the NHL. A shutdown pair of Jay Bouwmeester and Alex Pietrangelo is just a couple of Olympians playing together, capable of being a shutdown pair or producing offensively. Kevin Shattenkirk, who would look great in a Red Wings uniform by the way, is a primer offensive defenseman and Colton Parayko is one of the best young blueliners in the NHL. Now you see who tonight will be a measuring stick game.

Tonight’s goaltending matchup should be Petr Mrazek vs. Jake Allen. Mrazek practiced in the Red Wings’ “starter’s net” on Tuesday which suggests he’ll start again tonight. It has been a great three-game stretch for Mrazek, who has won three in a row while turning aside 90 of 96 shots (.938 SV%) that he has faced. Tonight would be his third road start of the year and we all know how the first two went…hopefully the Red Wings are more up for the task than they have been in their first three road games of the year. 

For Allen, it is his first year as an NHL No.1 goalie with Brian Elliott now in Calgary and he has played OK so far. Allen has won three of his first five starts while posting a 2.39 GAA and .896 SV%. Carter Hutton started on Tuesday, so it will almost certainly be Allen this evening.  

Puck drop is at 8:00 p.m. ET at the Scottrade Center in St. Louis. You can watch the game on Fox Sports Detroit or listen to it on 97.1 FM The Ticket. 

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