The Red Wings Top 5 RFA Targets on the Back End

7 years ago

The UFA market generally gets all the offseason glory in the NHL. It’s flashy, the names are recognizable and the storylines have been building for over a year in some cases. The fact that a player is a UFA also means they’ve been in the league a while and thus have a deeper pool of statistics to draw from, whether or not teams decide to actually use them (see: Stephen Weiss, Dave Bolland) is another issue entirely.

The RFA market is almost the opposite, as it is generally set up to favour the team over the player. Not to mention, the sample size is so small at that point it’s tough to make long-term decisions. It’s built into the last CBA that teams get some great years out of young players for a relatively low dollar figure. Offer sheets are barely even on the table anymore, we don’t need to dabble into that history at this point, everyone knows it just doesn’t happen. That may change in an expansion era or maybe one day we’ll see a team want to mortally wound a division rival but until then, don’t get your hopes up.

What we have seen though is the evolution of the RFA market in a salary cap world. We’ve seen players like Dougie Hamilton go, Brandon Saad last season as well, teams are developing talent at a rate that outpaces both their cap and skill projections for their players. Some teams like Anaheim are just playing with a self-imposed cap and when these decisions come up they are quick to take the dollars over the talent. Just the nature of the business.

This is an interesting route take for the Wings for a few reasons. Picking up UFAs and making deadline deals doesn’t work anymore for the team. Those were temporary fixes for where that team was at the time and often led to overpayment on mediocre assets. What they need now is a move that makes sense 3-5 years from now. Of course it’s impossible to project with certainty but I don’t think there’s anyone who can argue that any three of these players on the list aren’t a better move than throwing dollars at Hamhuis, Boyle or Campbell. The common thread with all the RFA defencemen is that they are young players with NHL experience who are on teams who didn’t plan accordingly for either the dollars, or in some cases, even something as simple as having the roster space.

Are these the best RFAs on the market? Certainly not, but we have to be realistic in assuming Ristolainen isn’t going anywhere as he is showing top-end skill on a team with the cap room to keep him. This is also accounting for rumors that Lindholm will be kept by Anaheim at nearly any cost as his projected ceiling is also looking like it’ll be of the elite level. Morgan Rielly just saw a 6×6 extension and while being drafted two spots ahead of Lindholm, they’re actually tied in career points and Lindholm is better in almost every other statistic despite an abysmally low 2% shooting percentage at 5v5 last season (will go up) and a PDO that saw Lindholm on the wrong side of bounces (also likely to level out). Lindholm’s monstrous 57% CORSI at 5v5 is an indication of what this guy is going to be doing in a few years for Anaheim but also in contrast to Rielly, he’s going to be getting at least the same and is worth more.

Are these guys a long shot? Most certainly, I’m not in denial of that. But in the salary cap era, it’s time to get creative and start thinking about your offseason a little differently than you have in the past. It’s paid off for teams like Columbus and Calgary, so why not at least make some calls.

Let’s look at the five possible options though:

5. DMITRY ORLOV

Orlov has been a roller-coaster player for the Capitals. He has made things tough for the team to really project or commit to him as he has flashes of brilliance followed by deep slumps. This is the first season since 2011 where he joined the club for 60 games that he hasn’t been sent down to the AHL at some point in the season. There’s a potential offensive upside there but also a bit of questioning when it comes to his defensive game at times. He is still a kid and if anything, those inconsistencies will keep the price tag down.

The Capitals do find themselves in sort of a bind. They have about $18M committed to four defencemen already and if my numbers are correct after acquiring Lars Eller, only $4.5M to work with to sign Marcus Johanssen, Tom Wilson, Michael Latta and Orlov. That quite simply isn’t going to happen. Should a team come in offering some cheap assets and/or picks, Orlov just might be let go. Not to mention the Hersey Bears, the AHL affiliate, is stacked with talent that may just be ready to step into a bottom six roll for entry-level dollars. Maybe Orlov isn’t exactly the player The Wings need but he may come as one of the cheapest options for a quick boost to the back end.

The Wings could use a little of the magic he tossed around here:

4. Torey Krug

Boston has an ugly streak lately of letting players go due to either cash limitations or undervaluing their potential. Whether it was dishing Hamilton and Boychuk only for picks or the Tyler Sequin trade, Boston is getting a reputation for this sort of thing. That’s just one of the reasons I put Torey Krug on this list. Krug has averaged 41 points-per-season over the last three years including last year’s career best 44 points in 81 games. While undersized at 5’9″ he has a bit of that Boston grit to his game and is a fixture on their power-play. His possession numbers are good over the last few seasons but he’s heavily sheltered in a rigid Boston system. As he has had to take more ice time and more responsibility though due to Boston’s thinning blue-line all of his advanced stat numbers have seen decline. If this was two seasons ago and Hamilton and/or Boychuk was still around I’d think maybe there was a chance he’d get moved but the fact is the Bruins only have three defencemen under contract next season and Krug is better than every other option they have. He’s already earning $3.9M and will likely see a decent raise if he isn’t seeing term from the team. Not a player I think Boston is willing to move and not someone I think Detroit should drop the kind of money he’s likely seeking on.

With the Bruins drafting McAvoy in the first round of the draft this year though, that might be a cheap option they could slot into the lineup sooner than later should they land a piece like Shattenkirk who they are apparently in hot pursuit of. A Trade like that could just price Krug out of the lineup.

Love the way he moves with the puck on his stick to force goaltenders to overreact:

3. Tyson Barrie

Another guy not as genetically gifted standing only 5’10” but certainly a defenceman who can find the back of the net. He’s got 102 points over his last two seasons and has consistently produced at every level. He’ll be 25 at the start of next year on a Colorado Avalanche team who already have six defenceman under contract and who need to sign RFA Nathan MacKinnon as well. This one is difficult because one would think that a defence as bad as Colorado’s could not afford to let a player like Barrie go but yet he we are. He’s without a contract and his name has been popping up often on the trade market. Now, this is also the same team who has also been rumored to be shopping Duchene for like a year now and who still has Patrick Roy behind the bench so we can’t be quick to rule out them doing something as stupid as letting Barrie go. The reality is though Barrie is only making $2.6M right now and his next contract will buy up some UFA years and that’s going to cost the Avs. Even if it goes to arbitration I think Barrie makes that team bleed dollars. The Avs had no problem dragging O’Reilly through the mud and eventually shipping him out so it wouldn’t shock me to see Barrie suffer a similar fate. My only qualm is that should he be traded, the price may be the highest of almost anyone on this list. If you had a shot at anyone else on here, I’d take it before I’d reach for Barrie. Lately the Avs have denied that Barrie is available.

The Wings don’t have many forwards with hands this good, let alone defencemen:

2. Jacob Trouba

A phenomenal player but an unlikely name to move is Jacob Trouba at number two. This one will cost a team big in both dollars and years and that’s after they dish picks, prospects and/or roster players just to attain his rights. But he is a right-handed defenceman on a team that just extended Byfuglien and has Myers until 2020. This is a case of maybe just not having the room to fit the kid in the lineup on the right side while also attempting to justify $5.5M for Myers to be on your bottom pair. Winnipeg won the Laine sweepstakes and also drafted Logan Stanley with their other 1st round pick, they could rebuild real fast here. They have Nic Petan, Kyle Connor, Marco Dano, and Josh Morrissey in waiting, Hellebuyck ready to go, Ehlers already showing top 6 prowess and Laine of course on the way. Detroit may just have the assets to help further that process but make no mistake, it’s going to cost them to pry Trouba away. A top prospect is likely in the mix, as well as a decent pick or two and maybe more past that. Plus, there will be many suitors should even rumors of Trouba’s availability start circulating. He’s a positive possession player on a bad team and had a 54% CF the last year the Jets were a playoff team. He’s big, he’s tough and while he doesn’t have the offensive numbers the others do, he’s that building block every team in the league would love to have. Of the five on the list, I believe Trouba is the best option. In terms of likelihood of the player actually moving though, it caused him to drop a bit. This is a potential Ryan Suter type player that I really can’t see Winnipeg, a team rebuilding, letting go of but it doesn’t mean Detroit shouldn’t actively explore the potential there.

1. Mathew Dumba

The top name on our list is Minnesota’s Mathew Dumba. This is another case of maybe just not having the room for him in the lineup. Minnesota has $20M tied up until 2020 on four defencemen already. They took advanced stat darlings like Spurgeon and Scandella over a much grittier Dumba. Dumba’s name has been bounced around in trade talks for a while now as what seems to be part of a package the Wild are willing to assemble for a bonefide top line centre. In that department, Detroit cannot help them. We’re likely to see Dumba go as part of a package for a player like Nugent-Hopkins. His grit, his offensive ability, those power-play skills and his overall physical play would be exactly what the Wings could use though. Minnesota isn’t particularly flush with prospects so Detroit could maybe help out in that way, especially when it comes to young wingers but this is a win now type team. Dumba getting traded wouldn’t be a stretch though as Minnesota likely wants to get their recent signing Mike Reilly into that core soon with his friendly cap hit and readiness to play with the big club.

His possession numbers took a hit this season but he’s averaged 0.69 points-per-60 minutes at even strength in his two NHL seasons while also being their PP guy. Detroit could utilize him in a similar way by reducing a declining Kronwall’s PP time in favour of Dumba. Let’s also not forget Richards was (inexplicably) the PP point shot leaving another gap Dumba could slot into nicely. While he may be a great PP piece, he scores at 5v5 too, making his offensive numbers even more promising.

Dumba simply possesses a skill set unique to the Red Wings. He throws the body, he fights, he can QB a power-play, he shoots right and he’s got a rocket of a shot. All are traits that would be welcomed on the roster next season especially coming from a 22-year-old. Maybe not a top pairing guy but a nice, young, versatile addition to any team. What’s most important is that of all the players on the list, he would likely be the most favourable cap hit and bang for your buck. There are reinforcements coming in Detroit, they just need some time. As Kronwall and Ericsson filter out, Dumba could be a phenomenal transition piece. He can play with the big club now and can be a leader for the kids on their way in in a few years. Like we said, the difficult part is finding the pieces Minnesota needs to make the trade happen but it should be explored none the less. A lot of this depends on the Shattenkirk/Fowler rumours. Should say Edmonton manage to snag either of those options, the market may just widen a bit for Dumba.

The Wings won’t find the solution to their defensive woes on the open market and they certainly won’t find it in one off season. What we’re showing here is that there is potential out there to start making strides in the proper direction. We’ve been burned before on UFAs, we have a backlog of players in the minors, and the core is aging aggressively. These five guys present options for the future that also immediately make the team better in a few areas. Both Nyqvist and Tatar saw down seasons this year, specifically with a reduction in their power-play contributions. Bringing in a guy like Dumba makes that power-play stronger and those other guys get better too. They’re not going to miss 30 games a year because they don’t have the miles on them and they’re going to cost you less now than other alternatives. Yes, anytime you have to dish assets just to gamble on a young player you’re taking a risk, but all five of these guys have a good enough body of work to see they all have something special and valuable to bring to whichever team is smart enough to go for them.

The RFA crop is the best shot Detroit has and it would be greatly disappointing to see no effort go into the pursuit of any of these five while simultaneously throwing dollars and years at aging UFAs again. There was a ton of talk about change and approach at the end of this season, we’re all watching closely to see how much of that was a calculated plan and how much of it was over season’s tickets concerns.