Projecting the Red Wings’ 2018-19 Roster
By Brad Krysko
6 years agoThe 2018 trade deadline has come and gone and the Red Wings deals (and non-deals) were received with mixed reactions. The big win was obviously the Tomas Tatar trade to Vegas, netting a 2018 1st round pick, a 2019 2nd, and a 2021 3rd. While Tatar is a terrific player, getting that many futures and getting his 5.3 million dollar cap hit off the books was the right move for a rebuilding team.
The trade that sent Petr Mrazek to Philly didn’t yield as big of a return as one would hope for a goalie of his talent but with how thin the goalie market was, it’s still a decent return. Had Philadelphia not lost BOTH goaltenders, Petr is likely still a Red Wing and thus leaving another huge question mark in the off season as he was not likely to be qualified. I’ll put this trade in the win column.
That was it, those were the only two moves and now leaves Detroit in a very problematic spot going into next season. Obviously, not getting any futures for an expiring asset in Mike Green is a blow, but with his injury situation it’s understandable. There was interest in some lower level players on the Wings, some of whom are on questionable to awful contracts and not moving at least one of those was their biggest mistake. For example, it was rumoured the Leafs offered a 5th round pick for Luke Glendening and Detroit declined. In a vacuum I would agree that a 5th round pick is not enough for Glendening, but we’re not in a vacuum. There is context and circumstance. The 5th round pick is nice and getting Glendening’s contract off the books is important, but even more importantly, moving him would have freed up a much needed roster spot. You will see why that matters in a moment.
Call it a rebuild, call it a retool, it doesn’t matter. The key to either strategy is to get younger. To build for the future. The Red Wings currently have 20 picks in the next two drafts and that’s no small feat, it’s the perfect strategy to build a contender in today’s cap world. However, the on-ice roster (specifically the contract situation) is doing the future roster zero favours. By the time the Wings are contenders again, you’d like to have some of the current prospects seasoned and ready to groom the new guard in 3-5 years. The problem is, there’s no room for most of them. Here’s my best guess as to what the 2018-19 Red Wings roster will look like as of now without signing a single unrestricted free agent.
Forwards:
Mantha – Larkin – Athanasiou
Rasmussen – Zetterberg – Nyquist
Bertuzzi – Nielsen – Helm
Abdelkader – Glendening – Frk
Svechnikov – Witkowski
Defense:
Ericsson – Daley
Dekeyser – Kronwall
Ouellet – Jensen
Hicketts
Goalies:
Howard
Coreau
(Disclaimer: these are not the lines and pairings I think they will use)
Let’s look at the positives and negatives of this roster.
Positives:
- Three rookies should be on the team full time.
- Rasmussen should have a nice cozy spot in the top 6. Based on the numbers he’s putting up in the WHL this season, I don’t think it’s a stretch to say he’ll be a full-timer next season. I mean, he almost made the team this season.
- This team will be bad. Normally that’s a negative but hey, we’re retooling! A high pick is what we need!
- Contracts that expire at the end of the 2018-19 season: Kronwall, Witkowski, Ouellet, Jensen, and Nyquist. This will shed some no longer needed players and create a good rental market for Nyquist should he choose to not extend. For what it’s worth I would consider extending Nyquist if he’s willing to take a reasonable cap hit and I’d consider keeping Jensen around solely for his skating ability. Everyone else goes.
Negatives:
- Two of the rookies, Hicketts and Svechnikov, are going to really struggle to find ice time. Unless Detroit rids themselves of Blashill and hires a new coach with a new philosophy of relying on the youth to carry the team, they’ll likely be in the press box a lot (I’m not betting on a new organizational philosophy).
- Dominic Turgeon is nowhere to be found. He’s having a terrific season in Grand Rapids as their primary penalty killer and he’s putting up big offensive numbers on top of that. He didn’t look out of place in his brief look this season either.
- I don’t see Jared Coreau getting many starts. He’ll get his share but it likely won’t be enough to really get a good read on him. Again, unless the coaching philosophy changes.
- They may not be ready next year, but Hronek, Sulak and Saarijarvi are coming. It would be nice to get at least one of them some regular minutes next year so the team isn’t potentially throwing three rookie defensemen into the line up at one time. As I already mentioned, there are a lot of expiring contracts next season which will free up a bunch of roster spots for the youngsters in 2019-20.
A few notes, as you can see I left Mike Green off this roster even though there have been talks of re-signing him. If he’s willing to take a one year term then it’s not the worst thing in the world. You could potentially flip him at next year’s deadline if his health holds up. However, if I’m Mike Green, why in the world would I take a one year contract at age 33? This will be his last kick at a contract with term. There’s also the possibility the Wings trade a couple players at the draft but I’m not counting on it. If they do, that would render a lot of the negatives moot which would be fantastic. In a perfect world they move one forward and one defenseman in the offseason and sign zero free agents.
It’s all speculation but how the next GM and coach handle the youth next season is going to be very telling of where this organization’s head is at. It’s clear they’re stockpiling for the future but when do they actually dip into the stockpile?
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