Moritz Seider and what is to come in first AHL season

The Detroit brass didn’t want to hint at anything all summer. Not until a verdict had been reached.

Yet with the deadline for league compliant rosters approaching, and the clock nearing triple zeros, it was only a matter of time before word got out. Of course, I’m referring to Moritz Seider, and the question that’s been looming all summer — where will the German defensemen be playing his hockey in 2019-20?

Sunday afternoon the speculation was finally put to rest. Seider, the sixth overall pick from this past June’s draft, announced his assignment to Grand Rapids via Instagram. Shortly after, the team made the move official.

https://www.instagram.com/p/B3AR-Dxnht1/

From the start of the Traverse City prospects tournament to the last game of preseason, Seider showcased the raw abilities that made him a top-ten selection. The method to Steve Yzerman’s madness was confirmed in a way, as the Wings may have found the cornerstone to their blue-line for years to come. Seider was that good throughout training camp.

So it’s no surprise that Yzerman & co. made the decision to keep Seider in North America, rather than send him back to Mannheim. Grand Rapids is the much more logical landing spot, presenting enough challenge for him to grow, while also not rushing him to Detroit. Seider’s pro experience in Germany should make the transition a much smoother one, then if, say, he was fresh out of Canadian major junior. As was the case for 2018 first round pick Filip Zadina, who experienced growing pains after joining the Griffins following a year in the QMJHL.

But there is a big difference between Detroit’s most recent number one picks — two, actually — position and age.

Position, the more noteworthy of the two, will present the most interference in Seider coming over and setting the world on fire right from day one. Due to a much more complex learning curve, defensemen generally take more time to develop than forwards, having to find the correct balance between offense and defense.

Secondly, age is another key factor in Seider’s adjustment to North American pro hockey. The 18 year-old is slated to be the youngest player in the AHL this season, with the next closest in age being nearly a full year older. Compared to the aforementioned Zadina, the Czech turned 19 in November, while Seider won’t turn 19 until early April. And, oh yeah, there is also the position element that he must hurdle.

So for as much hype as the Zell, Germany, native has garnered with his draft slot and training camp performance, the results may not come in the form that his enthusiasts would have hoped for. An under-19 defensemen playing in the AHL is a rare occurrence, specifically ones that play for the whole year.

The history of U19 defensemen in the AHL backs that claim up.

Since the 2000-01 season, only nine U19 defensemen have played 10 or more games in a single AHL season. Many of whom, did not produce at any sort of eye-popping clip. Last season Toronto’s Rasmus Sandin enjoyed a historic U19 campaign, scoring at a points per game rate of 0.64 over 44 games. Quite easily, the best U19 performance we’ve seen from a defensemen, ever.

Hampus Lindholm serves as the most comparable player to Seider, at least in terms of situation. Like Seider, Lindholm was another top-ten pick who entered the AHL after spending the previous season in a European pro league. The Ducks defensive stand-out recorded 1 goal and 11 points in 44 AHL games. The following season, he went on to be a NHL regular, putting up 30 points in 78 NHL games, on route to be named to the NHL’s all-rookie team.

So the numbers haven’t come easily for U19 defensemen, not from the limited sample that meets that criteria, anyways.

Counting stats aside, the responsibilities of teenage defensemen in the AHL become increasingly more difficult. Forechecks are more intense, gaps become wider, and your opponents are much smarter. In some cases, these kids are literally being thrown to the wolves. It takes time to adapt to the improved competition.

As exciting as it is to see Seider remain on this side of the pond, its important to keep expectations in check. Reasonable benchmarks can sometimes get lost in the fold with high-profile draft picks.

The 2019-20 season for the Griffins looks to be a fun one, with five recent first round picks being featured on the roster. A large part of that interest will be due to Seider’s presence, but he is still a maturing hockey player. Hell, half the defense is too, with three AHL rookies debuting on the back-end. With that comes a lot of ups and downs.

So don’t freight if he isn’t lighting up the score sheet or doesn’t receive the minutes you had hoped for. This thing takes time.

It’s all apart of the process.