Krysko: Ranking the Red Wings Top 25 Prospects

The offseason is dragging on, Dylan Larkin has a new contract, Henrik Zetterberg may be done forever, camp is about to start, and there are no trades to speak of so this seems like a terrific time to look into the future. I have compiled my personal Top-25 Red Wings prospects. To fully understand this list I have to explain a few guidelines I set for myself:

Without further ado, the list:

Projection: 1st Line Elite Scoring Winger

Projection odds: 95%

Roster odds: 99%

Filip Zadina is the type of prospect you need to successfully rebuild. Simply put, he is an elite goal scorer. Hockey sense is not something you can teach, you either have it or you don’t and he has it. He just knows how to put the puck in the net whether that’s off the rush, off the cycle, powerplay, etc. He has a lethal shot, terrific hands, and great skating. He’s a dominant offensive force but is still a very well rounded player, he’s capable, not amazing, defensively and he is ultra competitive which Montreal and Ottawa are going to realize shortly.

Projection: 2nd Line Scoring Center

Projection odds: 75%

Roster odds: 99%

Michael Rasmussen will be a Detroit Red Wing, likely this season. He skates well for a player of his size and his hands are terrific, he uses his frame well to establish position, and he’s capable defensively. I’d like to see him show a bit more creativity but he is still productive while keeping his game simple. His true strength is net front, he uses his size and soft hands well which makes him nearly impossible to contain around the crease. On top of that his hand eye coordination is among the best I have seen, he has a legit chance at being the most lethal net front powerplay specialist in the league.

Projection: #2 or #3 Two-Way Defenseman

Projection odds: 65%

Roster odds: 90%

I went back and forth between Cholowski and Hronek as to who my #3 prospect was going to be but I settled on Cholowski for his ability to impact the game in more ways. I do not think his offensive ceiling is quite as high but Cholowski creates a positive impact in all three zones. His most notable skill is his passing, couple that with his high hockey IQ and it makes a defenseman very suited for today’s NHL. His skating is also a strong point, he doesn’t have elite top end speed but it’s smooth and he knows how to use it effectively. His shot isn’t spectacular but it’s good.. His superb skating and passing also lend very well to the transition game as he’s able to find the proper outlets or skate it out himself. I’d like to see him push the play a little more than he does because I’ve watched shifts where he dominates but others where he is way too passive. He’s going to likely need at least one season in Grand Rapids to acclimate to the pro game but if it goes well I expect him to land in Detroit for the 2019-20 season.

Projection: 2nd Pairing Offensive Defenseman

Projection odds: 75%

Roster odds: 90%

Hronek’s game is not as well rounded as Cholowski’s but his offensive game is a step above. He has high end ability on the powerplay because of his potential to be the set up or trigger man. His skating leaves a little something to be desired but I wouldn’t consider it poor. However, he does make up for that with an unreal set of hands. He also comes with some edge to his game which is nice but sometimes leads him to be a little overzealous in his own end. He has some work to do defensively but there were signs of improvement last season so I’d like to see more progression on that this season. There’s a good chance that Hronek sticks with the Wings out of camp, he may even be the favorite to land that final roster spot but he’ll have to show more of a complete game in camp for that to happen.

Projection: 2nd Line Two Way Center

Projection odds: 50%

Roster odds: 80%

To this minute, I still have no idea why Joe Veleno slipped to 30th in the 2018 draft but I am sure glad he did. I often find describing someone as a complete player to be a bit of an over simplification but Joe Veleno is a complete player. He skates at an elite level, has great offensive upside (although it’s not elite), he is very responsible defensively, can play PP and PK, good hands, decent shot, he is the typical jack of all trades. I would like to see some more creativity to his offensive game but even though his method is simple, it’s effective. To be clear though, the only part of his game I would consider elite at this point is his skating, the rest of his tool belt is good to great. Although this is almost exactly what was said of Dylan Larkin prior to the 2014 draft…..

Projection: 2nd Line Scoring Winger

Projection odds: 30%

Roster odds: 75%

We have a good sample size at this point to have a rough idea of what Evgeny will be at the NHL level. I still think there’s some room to improve so I put his projection as a second liner but realistically I think he’ll settle in as a regular on the third unit. He has the tools to score in different ways but where he shines is on the cycle, he uses his large frame well to create time and space but he lacks the dynamic skill to create as many chances as you’d like. His game is well rounded enough to play up and down the line up so that should help keep him on the big club once he gets there. After a rough year in Grand Rapids I’d expect him to spend another year there to get his swagger back.

Projection: 2nd Line Scoring Winger

Projection odds: 60%

Roster odds: 65%

You’ll notice there’s barely a difference between his projection and roster odds and there’s a reason for that, Berggren is one dimensional player, he’s a highly skilled offensive dynamo. He’s one dimensional but it’s one hell of a dimension. He was absolutely fascinating to watch at the World Junior Summer showcase for Sweden, every single time he touches the puck you can see his first thought is how do we get this to the net. This comes with the obvious positive that he creates a lot of scoring opportunities but it comes with the downside that he turns the puck over a lot. It was a bit frustrating because he has such an abundance of skill you know he’s more than capable of holding the puck for longer and waiting for something else to open up. All that being said, this is the mindset I love to see in players so with some time and maturity his game should evolve and he’ll be a constant headache for opponents. As I said though, with his style of game coupled with the fact he’s only 5’10” he’s got to be playing in a top 6 role to be truly effective. His skating and hands are great but his defensive game leaves a lot to be desired.

Projection: 2nd Pairing Offensive Defenseman

Projection odds: 40%

Roster odds: 55%

I’m actually a little upset Vili is this low on my list but that’s a good problem to have for the Red Wings. Saarijarvi had a tough year in Grand Rapids, struggling to find consistent ice time mostly due to a roster log jam,  but I’m still a big believer in him. Out of all the defensive prospects in Detroit’s system, Vili Saarijarvi is the most talented. Period. End of statement. His skating, hands, passing, and shot are all great but what separates him is his vision and creativity. He just knows how to generate offensive, especially when the puck on his stick and he can do it with great variety. This is my favourite example of the extreme creativity and skill he possesses, as the puck is coming to him he fakes the one timer, stops, cuts back, opens up the shooting lane and puts a perfect wrist shot through all in one motion. Oh and for context, this was the World Juniors Gold Medal game tied with under 2.5 minutes left so clearly the big stage doesn’t bother him. The downside with Vili right now is that his defensive game isn’t strong and he’s undersized so until he gets that figured out he won’t sniff the Wings roster.

Projection: Starting Goaltender

Projection odds: Who knows

Roster odds: Possibly

Admittedly scouting goaltending is not my strong suit but he had too good of a season to not put him this high. He was named the top goalie in the USHL after posting numbers that were simply ludicrous. He’s very calm in net, relying on his positioning to make the save more than his athleticism. It’s great that he reads the play so well but I do have concerns about whether or not better shooters will be able to exploit his lack of athleticism. I guess we will find out this season as he is committed to the University of Denver.

Projection: 3rd Pairing Two Way Defenseman

Projection odds: 85%

Roster odds: 85%

Little Joey Hicketts, a phrase we hear way too much and a phrase I’m sure he’s sick of hearing, but the reality is that there are very few 5’8 defenseman in the NHL. I think his skill set is good enough to overcome it but not at any sort of truly impact level. His skating is good but not great, his shot isn’t overpowering but he knows how to find the lanes, his passing is great, and does bring a surprising amount of physical edge. His defensive zone awareness is very strong and for his size he doesn’t get overwhelmed on the boards. I think he will bring terrific value to Detroit’s bottom pair, possibly as soon as this year.

Projection: 2nd Pairing Two Way Defenseman

Projection odds: 35%

Roster odds: 50%

I am not sure if there’s enough offensive skill in his game to truly call him a two way defenseman but there’s enough there to say there’s a chance. What he is though, is a very reliable defender who uses good hockey sense to be in the right spot at the right time. There’s nothing flashy about his game but it’s effective. He’s a good puck mover and has a smart shot from the point so in theory he’d match up well with a guy who can tip in shots and cash rebounds, like Michael Rasmussen. That was convenient.

Projection: Bottom Pairing Defensive Defenseman

Projection odds: 35%

Roster odds: 50%

Gustav is a steady reliable defenseman who is not incompetent with the puck but there’s not a ton of high end skill here to get excited about. He’s held his own at just about every level he’s played and Detroit’s brass seems to be pretty excited about him so that’s something. It’s very early in the SHL season but it does appear as though his offensive game has turned up a notch.

Projection: 2nd Pairing Two Way Defenseman

Projection odds: 30%

Roster odds: 50%

Sulak is an interesting case, he was signed as an undrafted free agent out of the Austrian league, he then went to play in Finalnd’s top league where he was among the best defensemen. He had a good, albeit very brief, showing in Grand Rapids at the end of the year and then had a great world championship for the Czechs. However, he’s already 24-years-old so I don’t know how much more growth there will be to his game. He’s a big, smooth skating puck mover and that’s always useful in the NHL. He’s prone to some dumb decisions and on smaller North American ice that could be problematic so I’m very curious to see how his first full season in Grand Rapids goes. He could be a legit #3 defenseman, a bottom pairing spare part, or a non factor in the NHL. It’s weird to be 24 and not have that pinned down yet but here we are.

Projection: 4th Line Center

Projection Odds: 65%

Roster Odds: 65%

Turgeon is what he is, a very strong penalty killer and two way center. I feel like there’s more offense to his game than he’s shown but I don’t think it’s much more. He skates well, has respectable hands, defends extremely well but won’t ever put up more than 10-15 goals at the NHL level.

Projection: Goalie

Projection odds: Yes

Roster odds: I’m sure there are some

For everything Filip Larsson is, Petruzelli is the antithesis. He’s extremely athletic, he’s huge, but his game is very raw. He had a rough first year in Quinnipac and will need to settle his game down this year. However, his raw ability still leaves a lot to like but it comes with a big question mark.

Projection: Bottom Pairing, Defensive Defenseman

Projection odds: 30%

Roster Odds: 30%

The thing to like about Regula is the simplicity to his game but the concern is also the simplicity to his game. He skates well, passes well, defends well and I feel his offensive game is better than he gets credit for but it’s certainly far from elite.

Projection: 3rd Line Scoring Winger

Projection Odds: 25%

Roster Odds: 40%

David Pope is a very late bloomer but he earned a contract from Detroit after putting up a large amount of goals in his final season at Nebraska-Omaha. The fact he didn’t break out until he was 23 does leave me very hesitant about any more growth to his game. He shoots the puck extremely well and has a knack for finding open space but his offensive game isn’t very well rounded. He’s not a great playmaker, his skating is good, and he isn’t overly creative. If he’s going to make the Red Wings, it’s going to be as a specialist on the powerplay firing bombs on his off wing.

Projection: 4th Line Scoring Winger

Projection odds: 35%

Roster odds: 35%

Is there even such a thing as a 4th line scoring winger? If it ever becomes a role, Givani will fill it. Grit is a hard thing to calculate but whatever the calculation is, Givani has a lot of it. His offensive game is above average but far from elite. His skating is what I would classify as below average but he counters that by being an absolute machine along the boards so he creates a lot of chances off the cycle. His skating is a big enough concern for me though that I’m not quite sure he’ll be effective at the NHL level. He also routinely gets into unnecessary penalty trouble so that needs to be ironed out of his game.

Projection: Bottom Pairing Two Way Defenseman

Projection odds: 20%

Roster odds: 20%

He’s tall, really tall, skates very well for his size, moves the puck well, has enough offensive instinct to give you some hope but he has a lot of blemishes in his game still. He’ll need to cut down on the turnovers and improve his defensive game to make an impact at the next level.

Projection: Goalie

Projection odds: Somewhere between 0 and 100

Roster odds: See above

JVP has had a few decent seasons playing pro in Switzerland. His numbers haven’t been spectacular but they’re also not poor. The reason I have JVP on this list is because of a few monster games he had playing for Switzerland in the World Junior Championship, keeping his team competitive against much stronger opponents.

Projection: 2nd Line Scoring Winger

Projection odds: 10%

Roster odds: 10%

When Kivenmaki was drafted, he was listed at 5’8 135 pounds. I am a big believer that size doesn’t matter much in today’s NHL but being that small matters. Apparently he is over 150 pounds now so that’s something. The main reason I have Kivenmaki higher than players drafted ahead of him on this list is because of his recent performance at the four nations tournament in Europe where he and fellow 2018 draftee, Jesperi Kotkaniemi, were by far far the two best players for Finalnd. Despite his size he does bring a near elite offensive skill set. He skates well enough but it’s his great hockey IQ and soft hands which set him apart. There is no denying his ability to create offense, it’s just whether or not it’ll transale at higher levels.

Projection: Another Goalie

Projection odds: You get the joke by now

Roster odds: Seriously, you get it.

Eliasson is on here for the same reason as Kivenmaki, a very strong four nations tournament where he was named the tourmanet’s top goaltender. Admittedly I have never watched him outside of this tournament so I won’t elaborate but I will be keeping a close eye on him this season.

Projection: 4th Line Two Way Center

Projection odds: 15%

Roster odds: 15%

I had high hopes for Axel after breaking U18 scoring records in Sweden’s top league but his last two seasons have brought down expectations. He has great hockey IQ but lacks elite skill in any aspect of the game. He’ll have to expand his tool belt in order to crack Detroit’s roster.

Projection: 3rd Line Scoring Winger

Projection odds: 5%

Roster odds: 10%

He will need to follow David Pope’s trajectory in order to have a chance since his first season in the NCAA was underwhelming. He’s massive with great hands and a nice scoring touch but lacks the all around game to truly separate himself.

Projection: 4th Line Two Way Winger

Projection odds: 5%

Roster odds: 5%

He plays a really strong two way game but lacks the offensive upside to really get excited about him, however there’s enough offense there to at least hold his weight on a 4th line role.