2018-19 Red Wings Player Review: Jonathan Ericsson

Photo credit:James Carey Lauder-USA TODAY Sports

4 years ago

With our next player review on tap, we have a player who is very familiar to most fans, and often not in a good way: Jonathan Ericsson.

Ericsson has been a mainstay on the Detroit Red Wings’ roster for almost a decade, but as he hits his late 30s, there have been signs that Ericsson is wearing down. Does that perception match with statistical reality? Let’s take a look at his profile in today’s WingsNation player review article:

Boxcars

Ericsson’s 3 goals and 2 assists for 5 points in 52 games comes out to a points-per-game average of 0.10. While Ericsson has never been an offensive player when it comes to blue line production, the 2018-19 campaign was a new low for him, with that PPG clip being the worst of his entire career. His -10 rating was one of the worst on the team as well, and while not a great stat, posting a number that lopsided is not great when you’re supposed to be a trusty veteran.

Corsi

Ericsson’s CF% was 44.69%, for a CF Rel% of -4.02%. That was the second worst number by a regular defenseman on the Red Wings, behind only his defense partner Trevor Daley. While it is true that third pairing defenseman are normally not possession dominant, and that Ericsson as a whole has never been a possession first player, this was still a rough campaign for Big E. It was his worst CF Rel% since 2014-15 and the second worst of his career (among seasons where he was a regular).

Goal Based

Ericsson’s GF% was a grisly 38.18%, coming out to a GF Rel% of -11.49%, second worst of any defenseman on the team who played at least 20 games, but it gets worse. His xG+/- was an appalling -15.8, nearly a full four points worse than any other player on the team, period. As a result, his Rel. xGF% was an equally ugly -11.11%, also right in the cellar of the team rankings. When it comes to both team performance in terms of goals when Ericsson was on the ice, as well as comparing him to his teammates, it is evident that the Red Wings were significantly worse when Ericsson was on the ice. Like, really bad.

Graphing it

Yea, that’s not good. In general, you should not have any dark red bars. If you do, you should have some dark blue ones balancing it out (like Brent Burns, for example). Five red bars though, not optimal. While Ericsson was still better in his own end than the offensive half, the complete and utter lack of contribution offensively (an Off_xG nearly three standard deviations below the mean!!!!), makes it so that his shaky defensive play (a Def_xG nearly two standard deviations below the mean) is all the more unsettling. As the chart shows, there was really not a single aspect of his game that was a plus for the Red Wings, with some atrocious negatives.

Evaluative metrics

It doesn’t get better here for Ericsson. Actually, this is probably his worst category, because it puts him in league context. Ericsson posted a 68.24 Corsica Player Rating, which was the 4th worst of any defenseman in the entire NHL who played at least 30 games. In terms of Game Score, Ericsson had an average score of -0.02, which was 7th worst of any defenseman in the NHL who played at least 30 games. Based on these numbers, it is not an understatement to say that Ericsson was legitimately one of the 5 or 10 worst defensemen in the entire league this past season. Ouch.

2019-20 PREDICTIONS

This is where not knowing the offseason trajectory is unhelpful. Ericsson has just one year remaining on his contract (thank god), but it remains to be seen whether he will be on the roster next year. There is the chance he could be bought out, as the Wings may prefer to clear space on the roster and swallow the cap hit over two years. There’s also the chance he could straight up retire, with his injuries piling up at the end of the year, and he is 35 years old. But let’s assume he’s on the roster for next season, I honestly wouldn’t expect him to play more than 30-40 games.

Ericsson was already being scratched when the full defensive corps was healthy last season and with new management less attached to Ericsson, I expect him to be the odd-man out when possible. Furthermore, the fact that he missed 25 or so games due to injury (as well as the few healthy scratches), means that we should not expect him to be remotely healthy for the full season. So, all things considered, let’s say 35 games played, 1 goal, 3 assists, 4 points, and an ugly +/-.

CONCLUSION

Jonathan Ericsson has often been on the wrong side of a lot of unfair anger from the Detroit fanbase. Obviously, the Swede was consistently prone to memorably bad giveaways, but for many seasons, he was a serviceable 3rd pairing defenseman. An overpaid one with too long of a contract, but fine all the same, even though the fans acted like he was godawful. I often defended him against the ire of the fanbase, but there was nothing to defend this year. Despite all the years of hyperbole, Ericsson was actually one of the very worst defensemen in the NHL and entering his age 36 season in 2019-20, he is not a playable NHL defenseman anymore. Period. Between the injuries and the dreadful play, he gets:

Grade: D-

Yep. He narrowly avoids the Stephen Weiss Memorial F Threshold, but just barely. It’s sad to see Ericsson’s career wind down this way, but that’s where we are.

Uncategorized